Oil traders bet Iran will want to keep its exports flowing

{"text":[[{"start":8.04,"text":"Despite crude oil’s combustible properties, armed conflict near large oil producers — Russia and now Iran — has not ignited a sustained rise in price. "},{"start":17.207,"text":"Brent crude fell on Monday, dipping below $90 a barrel, after this weekend’s attack on Israel by Iran. "}],[{"start":24.68,"text":"Why is the oil market so relaxed in the face of escalating regional tensions? "},{"start":29.284,"text":"The oil price may increasingly self-regulate in price terms. "},{"start":32.876999999999995,"text":"Higher oil prices just stoke fears of a reacceleration of broader price inflation. "},{"start":37.594,"text":"This would remove one of the factors behind the recent rally in equity prices. "},{"start":41.562,"text":"It is unlikely that commodity prices would continue to climb should central banks start to play down the prospect of interest rate cuts. "}],[{"start":49.22,"text":"World stock prices have rallied a fifth since October, anticipating an inflection point for interest rates. "},{"start":55.187,"text":"That hope has already dimmed. "},{"start":56.992,"text":"US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell this month hinted that the central bank would move slowly. "},{"start":62.034,"text":"US bond yields, anticipating problems, have risen this year. "},{"start":66.189,"text":"Interest rate traders anticipate less than half as many reductions by global central banks as at the beginning of the year. "}],[{"start":73.28,"text":"As a result, equity markets are already more jittery — not a positive for oil. "},{"start":78.334,"text":"Since 2000 oil prices have rarely continued rising when the S&P 500 has a sustained decline. "},{"start":84.464,"text":"That surely would happen if oil prices soared in an all-out war between Iran and Israel. "},{"start":89.207,"text":"Opec+ producers could also use their almost 6mn barrels per day of spare capacity were price rises seen to threaten central banks’ next move, thinks Rystad Energy. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":99.38,"text":"Traders may also be questioning the extent of Iran’s military threat. "},{"start":103.39699999999999,"text":"The country will not want to hurt its own oil exports. "},{"start":106.264,"text":"These have picked up markedly in recent years, from a low of about 400,000 b/d in the pandemic year of 2020 to about 1.4mn b/d recently, according to Richard Bronze at Energy Aspects. "},{"start":118.907,"text":"Almost all of that is tanked to China from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. "}],[{"start":123.69999999999999,"text":"China brokered last March’s restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia after a seven-year dispute. "},{"start":130.504,"text":"Iran’s largest customer will not want to see that undone, nor does Iran wish to threaten its export revenues. "},{"start":136.434,"text":"Its recent failed attempt to raise the cost of its discounted oil to its Chinese customers underscores a poor negotiating position. "}],[{"start":143.57999999999998,"text":"Yes, oil prices could well rise if further hostilities ensue. "},{"start":147.82199999999997,"text":"But as politicians rush to avoid further conflict, markets are already signalling their fears that central banks will keep rates higher for longer. "},{"start":155.314,"text":"That should help keep oil range bound in the months ahead. "}],[{"start":158.17999999999998,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/150509-1713236489.mp3"}