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It is a rum old business when you cannot cover your costs. Just ask the owners of vessels ferrying liquefied natural gas across the seas. Spot charter rates in the Atlantic have plummeted more than 90 per cent since November to $4,000 a day, causing them to spring a leak.
无法覆盖成本的生意是很奇怪的。只需问问那些在海上运输液化天然气(LNG)的船只的船主就知道了。自去年11月以来，大西洋的即期租船费率已暴跌超过90%，降至每天4000美元，导致他们陷入困境。
An expected boom in LNG — driven by Europe’s pivot away from Russian gas and gung-ho US projects — has unleashed a flurry of shipbuilding. Yet the global supply of the liquid fuel grew just 2.5 per cent last year, a fraction of typical annual average growth in recent years. The extra 10bn cubic metres was less than one-third of the extra seaborne capacity.
预期中的LNG繁荣——由欧洲摆脱对俄罗斯天然气的依赖以及积极开展美国项目的转变而推动——引发了一波造船热潮。然而，去年全球对这种液化燃料的供应仅增长了2.5%，远低于近年来的年均增长水平。新增的100亿立方米产量还不到新增海运能力的三分之一。
The resulting losses are painful for ship operators, but not permanent. Manufacturing ships is an up-and-down game. Vessels take time to build; just not quite so long, it transpires, as it takes to get LNG plants online.
由此产生的损失对船舶运营商来说是痛苦的，但并非永久性的。制造船舶是一个起伏不定的行业。船舶建造需要时间，但事实证明，这个时间并不像让LNG工厂上线所需的时间那么长。
Messy politics, insurgencies and funding uncertainty add to the practicalities of building plants in the US, Africa and elsewhere; France’s TotalEnergies last month announced further delays to its $20bn project in Mozambique, launched in 2020.
混乱的政治、叛乱和资金不确定性增加了在美国、非洲及其他地区建设工厂的实际困难；法国道达尔能源(TotalEnergies)上个月宣布，其2020年启动的200亿美元莫桑比克项目将进一步推迟。
Worse, price differentials between the European and Asian markets have made it more profitable for the US, the biggest exporter, to ship LNG to Europe rather than Asia. That is a shorter trip, meaning still greater availability of ship hours. China’s retaliatory sanctions on US LNG may — at the margin — further curtail the average length of trips.
更糟糕的是，欧洲和亚洲市场之间的价格差异，使得最大出口国美国将LNG运往欧洲比运往亚洲更有利可图。这段航程较短，意味着船只的可用时间更长。中国对美国LNG的报复性制裁，可能会在一定程度上进一步缩短平均航程长度。
For plenty of ship owners, this is water off a duck’s back: charter rates are set in advance and only a minority are struck at the spot rate. Besides, they know it is a question of when, not if, the cycle turns. Expect an improvement in the imbalance this year rather than a complete reversal.
对于许多船东来说，这无济于事：租船费率是提前设定的，只有少数是按即期费率签订的。此外，他们知道这是周期何时（而非是否）会转变的问题。预计今年这种不平衡会有所改善，而不是完全逆转。
Yes, LNG supply will grow; the International Energy Agency is forecasting 5 per cent in 2025. Europe, which is under regulatory orders to fill 90 per cent of gas storage facilities by November this year, needs to stock up. As of now, levels are running at about 53 per cent.
是的，LNG供应该将会增长；国际能源署(IEA)预测到2025年将增长5%。根据监管命令，欧洲需要在今年11月前将天然气储存设施填满至90%，而目前的储备水平大约为53%。
All that should be sufficient to nudge rates up from the seabed, even given increased shipping capacity and lacklustre growth from China. The world’s biggest LNG buyer is having a relatively mild winter and its slower economic growth does not tally with a big jump in energy consumption.
即使考虑到运力增加和中国经济增长乏力，这一切也应该足以将费率从低谷向上推高。全球最大的LNG买家中国正经历天气相对温和的冬季，而其较慢的经济增长与能源消费的大幅增长不符。
Further ahead, weather permitting, the outlook improves further. Shell of the UK is reckoning on a 50 per cent increase in LNG demand from 2023 to 2040. More projects should be coming online. Once again, traders will be griping about the cost of delivery.
展望未来，如果形势允许，前景将进一步改善。英国的壳牌公司(Shell)预计，从2023年到2040年，LNG的需求将增加50%。更多的项目应该会陆续上线。到时候，交易员们将再次抱怨交货的成本。