No one cares about numbers anymore — go figure

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":0.5,"text":"As a career analyst and opinion writer, I have gone the full nipple clamps and car battery on many a number to extract a high valuation or persuasive line. And I’ve exaggerated figures millions of times."}],[{"start":1,"text":"But my workings-out are always saved in case an editor or regulator comes knocking. And I sleep knowing every number is grounded in research and an honest desire to enlighten — however tortured or selectively chosen."}],[{"start":70.88,"text":"What a schmuck I am, though. Because who gives a wallaby’s about numbers anymore? Not politicians. Not investors. Not voters. No one, it seems. Numbers have become almost irrelevant. Real ones are ignored; the random embraced."}],[{"start":71.38,"text":"For example, we learnt on Wednesday that US debt may be $2.4tn higher in a decade thanks to Trump’s new tax bill. Yes, trillion. It would take almost 32,000 years to even count to a trillion. Whatever — yields on US Treasuries actually plunged and besides, how about that Indiana Pacers game?"}],[{"start":71.88,"text":"In Britain, meanwhile, the £10.5bn loss incurred when a bank returned to full private ownership last week after being nationalised 17 years ago barely elicited a mumble. It could have been £105bn or £10.50 for all anyone cared."}],[{"start":72.38,"text":"Once, for a bit of fun, I might have calculated that had Natwest’s finest paid themselves 15 per cent of revenues last year instead of 27 per cent (identical to pre-financial crisis levels, can you believe it!) the Treasury would have saved the same £1.8bn it hopes to raise over five years by increasing inheritance tax."}],[{"start":72.88,"text":"Why bother? Even the astonishing £37bn spent on the failed “test and trace” system by the UK government during Covid failed to register. Chancellor Rachel Reeves should just let rip in next week’s spending review."}],[{"start":73.38,"text":"It’s often said that only extremely large or small numbers are beyond our ken. Stars in the universe. Lottery odds. If Americans comprehended their one in 300mn chance of winning a Mega Millions jackpot, they would never walk to the shops to buy a ticket as statistically they would be run over and killed almost a million times before winning."}],[{"start":73.88,"text":"Today, however, numbers of any size go unchallenged. “We lose 300,000 people a year to fentanyl” said Donald Trump at his first cabinet meeting. In the 12 months to September 2024 it was more like 55,000."}],[{"start":74.38,"text":"Did Ukraine’s drones take out 40 or a dozen Russian bombers last Sunday? Not the point, we were told."}],[{"start":74.88,"text":"You might think we’re rigorous with digits we can at least count on our own fingers. Er, no. On Wednesday after a weak payrolls release the US president posted that “‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!”"}],[{"start":63.64,"text":"Actually the European Central Bank had only cut seven times up to that point. Seven, eight, nine. Blah, blah, blah. Trump knew the point he was trying to make, as did we. And to think I used to work with scores of fixed-income PhDs whose job it was to forecast the exact number of rate moves. What a waste!"}],[{"start":71.88,"text":"I once spoke with Stephen Fry about his dyscalculia. He has been very open about his difficulties in understanding and using numbers, despite having a cosmos-sized brain. Sixes and nines would simply leap around in front of his eyes, he told me."}],[{"start":87.24,"text":"It’s like we all have dyscalculia now — yet without Stephen’s self-awareness. Or perhaps we’re just ridiculously out of practice with figures these days. How many phone numbers can you recall since you’ve owned a mobile?"}],[{"start":100.4,"text":"But neither explains our lack of giving a damn — no matter how numerically literate we are. Surely one reason is that until something impacts us directly, numbers are only ever indicative. Whether Japan’s government debt to GDP is 200 or 300 per cent is immaterial, until it isn’t."}],[{"start":121.56,"text":"Hence after decades of postwar growth, politicians or AI start-up founders can quote the craziest numbers and get away with it. Yes, humans still have a good sense of direction — the cost of living crisis meant prices were going up. But by how much or relative to real or nominal wages was just noise."}],[{"start":142.76,"text":"The risk, of course, is we only regain our interest in numbers after it’s too late. When inflation is 15 per cent because — holy crap — it really is 15 per cent. Or because we’ve misquoted the number of illegal migrants by a factor of two and are now short of unskilled workers."}],[{"start":162.64,"text":"So can we care about numbers again please? I promise to bin my pliers for starters."}],[{"start":174.92,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftmailbox.cn/album/a_1750136138_2241.mp3"}