Markets rebound after Donald Trump postpones attack on Iranian energy

{"text":[[{"start":12.04,"text":"Stock markets in the US and Europe rebounded and oil prices fell on Monday after Donald Trump said Washington would postpone attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure following “good and productive” talks."}],[{"start":26.43,"text":"Brent crude, which had earlier reached more than $114 a barrel, dropped as low as $96 in volatile trading. The international benchmark settled at $99.94, down 10.9 per cent on the day. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker fell more than 10 per cent to close at $88.13 a barrel."}],[{"start":51.120000000000005,"text":"On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 1.1 per cent as the Vix “fear gauge” of expected volatility tumbled. The Stoxx Europe 600, which had entered so-called correction territory when the market opened on Monday, reversed the morning’s losses to finish the day 0.6 per cent higher."}],[{"start":73.85000000000001,"text":"Markets rallied after Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran had held “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES”, and that any and all strikes on power plants and energy infrastructure would be postponed for five days. "}],[{"start":95.43,"text":"But in a day of dramatic market swings, stocks later gave up some of their gains after Iran denied holding direct talks to end the war. Iran’s foreign ministry said there had been no negotiations with the US, although mediation efforts involving other countries had taken place at Washington’s behest. "}],[{"start":115.86000000000001,"text":"Jordan Rochester, fixed-income strategist at Mizuho, said it had been “an awful day for anyone trying to manage risk”."}],[{"start":125.55000000000001,"text":"“The hardest part is not predicting the war, but predicting the communication from the White House and how much markets will react to it.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":134.48000000000002,"text":"Government bond markets, which had sold off sharply early on Monday, also rallied after Trump’s statement. Two-year Treasury yields, which rose last week as traders added to bets for higher interest rate rises, fell 0.06 percentage points to 3.84 per cent. The two-year yield had, before Trump’s announcement, risen above 4 per cent for the first time since June. Prices move inversely to yields. "}],[{"start":165.72000000000003,"text":"The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 0.03 percentage points to 4.34 per cent."}],[{"start":175.31000000000003,"text":"Moves in the UK were even larger, with 10-year yields rising to their highest levels since 2008."}],[{"start":183.15000000000003,"text":"“Although this is merely a five-day postponement, we believe today’s headlines at least show that de-escalation is possible,” said Matthew Amis, investment director at Aberdeen. Amis said on Monday that the asset manager was “tentatively” buying gilts after the sharp sell-off in recent weeks."}],[{"start":203.34000000000003,"text":"However, he said that “to materially unwind the moves of the last few weeks, we would need to see more than words . . . namely ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz”."}],[{"start":217.29000000000002,"text":"Interest rate expectations also swung after Trump’s announcement. Having earlier priced in four interest rate rises by the Bank of England this year, swaps traders moved back to price in two. "}],[{"start":231.32000000000002,"text":"The Vix index, which had been running at about 30 before the announcement, fell to just over 20, before jumping back to about 26."}],[{"start":241.3,"text":"“Trump is clearly looking for an off-ramp,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer for fixed income at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “However, the Iranian price for a ceasefire, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is likely to be something which the US will struggle to accept.”"}],[{"start":271.18,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1774308637_5066.mp3"}