{"text":[[{"start":12.64,"text":"Investors will watch the release of US producer price inflation more closely than usual on Tuesday for any clues about the future path of interest rates in the world’s biggest economy."}],[{"start":26.380000000000003,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect the producer price index to have risen at an annual rate of 4.6 per cent in March, far above the 3.4 per cent recorded in February. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, producer prices are forecast to have risen 1 per cent month-on-month, faster than February’s 0.7 per cent."}],[{"start":51.980000000000004,"text":"If confirmed, the reading will add to concerns raised on Friday, when data showed consumer price inflation rising to 3.3 per cent in March, the highest rate in roughly two years, driven by petrol prices increasing."}],[{"start":68.07000000000001,"text":"The producer price index tracks the prices of goods and services before they reach the consumer. The March figures will capture the effects of the first month of the Iran war, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring and increased production costs for businesses."}],[{"start":85.47,"text":"“Higher PPI may give us a lead on whether higher energy costs are being fed through to wholesale prices,” said Eric Winograd, chief US economist at AllianceBernstein. “I’ll be watching this data more closely than I normally would.”"}],[{"start":101.77,"text":"The PPI, along with the consumer price index, feeds into the personal consumption expenditures index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. Accelerating wholesale inflation could encourage the more hawkish of the Fed’s policymakers to hold the central bank’s key interest rate at current levels for longer than anticipated. "}],[{"start":123.5,"text":"Traders in the futures market are betting that the Fed will not cut rates until late next year, though policymakers have signalled that they are prepared to cut rates at least once in 2026. Kate Duguid"}],[{"start":136.85,"text":"Will the Iran war boost the Chinese economy?"}],[{"start":140.73999999999998,"text":"The impact of the Iran war on the world’s second-largest economy has been a topic of great speculation. China’s first-quarter GDP figures, due on Thursday, will provide the latest evidence."}],[{"start":155.02999999999997,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect annualised growth to hit 5 per cent, up from 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year."}],[{"start":165.81999999999996,"text":"The new figures will cover one month of the Iran war, which sent global energy prices soaring and has constricted economies around the world. But China has long been grappling with deflation and a temporary increase in energy prices could help to reflate the economy, alongside government initiatives to drive consumption and the growth of the native AI sector."}],[{"start":190.70999999999998,"text":"China has also benefited from the US Supreme Court ruling to strike down President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz against the country and analysts say exporters are rushing to take advantage. “There is a huge frontloading into the US and into [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] to re-export to the US,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis."}],[{"start":217.34999999999997,"text":"For García-Herrero, expectations of 5 per cent growth “might be low” given the tailwinds for China in the past few months, which also include better data on consumption and investment. However, China’s economy “will have a harder time in the third and fourth quarter”, she warned, as the global economy slows due to the effects of the war. Arjun Neil Alim"}],[{"start":240.48999999999995,"text":"Is the UK heading for recession?"}],[{"start":243.17999999999995,"text":"How central banks will respond to surging energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East has become one of the most important questions for investors. For those looking at the UK, GDP data for February, due on Thursday, will offer an important signal."}],[{"start":260.91999999999996,"text":"A lot has changed since the period the data covers, as a historic rise in global energy prices has upended forecasts for inflation, growth and interest rates across the world. "}],[{"start":274.15999999999997,"text":"But Thursday’s release would be “more important than it appears at first sight,” said Tomasz Wieladek, chief European macro strategist at T Rowe Price. “The initial condition of the economy is key for the Bank of England’s policy reaction” to the energy crisis, he said."}],[{"start":293.79999999999995,"text":"Early in the war, traders quickly went from pricing two quarter-point interest rate cuts from the Bank of England this year to as many as four rate rises. The move has since partially unwound, with one rise now priced before the end of 2026."}],[{"start":312.13999999999993,"text":"The UK economy unexpectedly recorded zero growth in the initial reading for January, disappointing analysts who were mostly expecting a small expansion. Investors will be looking closely for any revisions to January’s number this month."}],[{"start":329.42999999999995,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect a 0.2 per cent month-on-month GDP expansion in February. Unofficial data, such as services and manufacturing sector surveys, have pointed to an improvement from January’s reading."}],[{"start":347.71999999999997,"text":"But if growth in February turns out lower than expected, then “a recession will be likely, given the current size of the oil shock”, Wieladek warned. Emily Herbert"}],[{"start":369.19,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776002095_3061.mp3"}