{"text":[[{"start":9.84,"text":"Global oil demand has plummeted since the start of the Iran war, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, in the steepest quarterly decline outside of the Covid-19 pandemic since before the global financial crisis."}],[{"start":24.96,"text":"The IEA, the world’s oil watchdog, said soaring prices, shortages of supplies and the near-total loss of air travel in the Middle East had led to a drop in demand that was almost unprecedented in its speed and severity."}],[{"start":40.48,"text":"Global oil demand fell 3.4 per cent in March and is expected to tumble a further 1.1 per cent in April to 100.4mn barrels a day, its lowest in more than three years, according to the IEA."}],[{"start":55.48,"text":"While huge uncertainty remains around the annual outlook for the global oil balance, with much hinging on whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, the IEA said demand for 2026 as a whole was now expected to fall."}],[{"start":69.48,"text":"That would be the first annual decline, excluding the pandemic, since the world’s economy froze up in 2009 during the biggest economic recession since the Great Depression following the financial crash."}],[{"start":82.12,"text":"The IEA said that while the initial drop in demand had been centred on the Middle East and Asia, the two regions most immediately affected by the sharp drop in supplies through the strait, western countries needed to brace for shortages to spread."}],[{"start":96.88,"text":"“Demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist,” the IEA said in its monthly report."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":104.64,"text":"Shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supplies usually passes, has stalled since the outbreak of war at the end of February."}],[{"start":114.76,"text":"While lower demand is helping to offset some of the lost supply from the Middle East war, the short-term deficit in the market is extreme, with about 13mn b/d of oil production shut off by the conflict."}],[{"start":128.28,"text":"The IEA has helped to co-ordinate a record release of 400mn barrels of strategic oil reserves to help offset the lost production from the Gulf, while additional commercially owned barrels have been sold."}],[{"start":140.68,"text":"More than 205mn barrels — the equivalent of roughly two days’ global oil demand — have been drawn from inventories outside the Gulf since the start of the conflict, the IEA said."}],[{"start":151.84,"text":"Global oil inventories have fallen less, declining by only 85mn barrels, but much of the difference accounts for oil that has backed up in the Gulf and is unable to reach world markets."}],[{"start":164.76,"text":"The Iran war triggered a plunge in global oil deliveries in March of 800,000 b/d compared with last year, according to IEA data. They are set to fall by 2.3mn b/d in April, which would be the biggest monthly fall since the start of 2021."}],[{"start":184.08,"text":"Iran has been preventing free passage through the strait since February 28 and on Monday the US started its naval blockade, limiting Iranian oil sales too."}],[{"start":194.72,"text":"If the war ends — and the strait reopens — relatively quickly, the world could still end with a small surplus of supply versus production in 2026, though it is far lower than predicted before the conflict."}],[{"start":208.64,"text":"According to the IEA’s latest estimates, the world will have an oversupply of fewer than 500,000 b/d on average in 2026. Only a month ago, that figure stood at 2.4mn b/d."}],[{"start":223.08,"text":"Data visualisation by Alan Smith"}],[{"start":231.68,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776227945_6065.mp3"}