{"text":[[{"start":6.05,"text":"You may remember that my investment goal is to have a million pounds in my retirement pot by the age of sixty, which is in 2032. Seemed crazy at first. Turns out I’m going to smash it with five years to spare."}],[{"start":19.65,"text":"In fact, I even know the date I’ll reach seven figures: January 11 2027. And the logic is infallible. The numbers speak for themselves as does a calendar. You may think me mad but check out the following."}],[{"start":34.75,"text":"It took almost a thousand days after my first column for my portfolio to grow by £100,000. The next hundred grand came in 500 days. This week, the milestone of £700,000 was breached. You guessed right: only 252 days were needed."}],[{"start":51.95,"text":"Hence if the time it takes to add another £100,000 keeps halving, my pension fund will begin with an eight before the Rugby League World Cup kicks off in October and a nine a fortnight before Christmas."}],[{"start":65.10000000000001,"text":"Then it’s £1,000,000 before the wrapping paper and bottles are taken out to the bins. "}],[{"start":70.4,"text":"I’m joking, of course. It’s obviously a fluke the maths works and markets could have gone anywhere. My funds also."}],[{"start":77.85000000000001,"text":"Still, everyone knows that global equities have been on a tear. It’s just that for my portfolio, the choice and timing of the funds I’ve owned or sold over the past few years has resulted in a perfectly exponential return. What are the chances?"}],[{"start":90.80000000000001,"text":"Indeed, since inception — which I define as my first Skin in the Game on November 19 2022 — I’m now up 60 per cent on the measly £438,300 I began with after almost three decades of employment. That feels good, I must say."}],[{"start":107.60000000000001,"text":"Yes, 75 per cent from only owning the S&P 500 would have felt even better — but it would have been much riskier too. That’s because the volatility of US stocks was amplified by some insane moves in the dollar versus the pound over the period."}],[{"start":122.80000000000001,"text":"My performance, however, was sixfold greater than a typical global portfolio comprising 80 per cent shares and 20 per cent bonds, as measured by Morningstar and quoted weekly in the table below in order to keep me honest."}],[{"start":136.55,"text":"To what do I owe these superior returns? Luck definitely. Contrary to what I preach, I made a few market-timing calls that worked out OK. Other than that, I stuck to my rules of only holding indices that are cheap and never owning Europe."}],[{"start":153.15,"text":"The recent melt-up in stocks has also helped of late, particularly in Asia where I re-entered the market at the end of March with a whopping one-fifth weighting. Thanks to artificial intelligence plays Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Samsung and SK Hynix, which make up a third of the index, my Asia fund is already up 28 per cent. "}],[{"start":176.05,"text":"Lest you think me smug, though — and after decades in this game I know investors who so much as grin are punished — I’ve crunched some other numbers that make me look a right wally. And you too for reading me!"}],[{"start":188.55,"text":"I thought it would be fun to ask the question: what if I had done absolutely nothing since that first column three and a half-odd years ago? What if I had stuck to the holdings I originally had in those two old company plans?"}],[{"start":202.75,"text":"Back then I had four equity exposures — and cash. Three quarters of my portfolio was invested equally in the FTSE All-Share, a World ex-UK index and a liquidity fund. Asia ex-Japan and Japan split the rump."}],[{"start":217.1,"text":"You can see I’ve favoured some markets for a long time now, returning to them even after my wild foray into 100 per cent cash at the end of last year. I’ve never owned a global fund again, however, mostly sticking to countries or regions."}],[{"start":231,"text":"Since then, I’ve also had a punt on oil, inflation-protected bonds, and even made some money holding European banks for a few months in 2023 — an exception that proves my rule. Wish I’d held the latter for longer too."}],[{"start":244.85,"text":"Where has all this moving and shaking got me? The analysis and endless worrying? (That said, I’m hardly a day trader and for months my portfolio does not change a jot — for which I appreciate your patience!)"}],[{"start":256.95,"text":"Well, if I hadn’t touched my original portfolio, it would now be worth — wait for it — exactly £699,420. My latest valuation is £707,563 — barely higher. All that effort. All those words! I calculate that to be £67.79 of value added per column. Pathetic."}],[{"start":279.09999999999997,"text":"Still, I’m being harsh. After all, I also chose those investments way back when and they turned out to be good ’uns. It’s not as if I’m being matched by a monkey jumping up and down on a Bloomberg. I’ve merely performed in line with me."}],[{"start":292.49999999999994,"text":"Even so, does it harden my belief that a light touch is essential when it comes to investing? Certainly Warren Buffett preached the art of doing nothing for long periods. Maybe. But I still believe that valuation discrepancies should be seized upon."}],[{"start":309.29999999999995,"text":"What is more, if one must get one’s hands dirty occasionally, it’s surely now. Three humongous listings loom: SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. I don’t usually write about individual stocks, but these are too big and important to ignore."}],[{"start":324.34999999999997,"text":"They will surely determine the prospects for US and global equities for months and years to come. This is genuinely new money entering the market at scale. Usually the buying of stocks has to be accompanied by selling."}],[{"start":339.09999999999997,"text":"And we’ve never seen anything like it: perhaps four trillion of additional market cap. The whole of the S&P 500 is not even twenty times bigger. Forget Hormuz — getting this right is the only thing that matters. More in the coming weeks."}],[{"start":353.09999999999997,"text":"The author is a former portfolio manager. Email: [email protected]"}],[{"start":null,"text":"
| Assets (£) | Weighting | Total returns YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard FTSE 100 ETF (GBP) | 202,253 | 28.6% | - |
| iShares MSCI EM Asia ETF (USD) | 165,704 | 23.4% | - |
| Vanguard FTSE Japan ETF (USD) | 72,204 | 10.2% | - |
| Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (USD) | 74,596 | 10.5% | - |
| BlackRock Latin American Ords | 64,567 | 9.1% | - |
| 4.5% Treasury Gilt 2034 | 128,239 | 18.1% | - |
| Total | 707,563 | - | 10.8% |
| S&P 500 (GBP) | - | - | 11.5% |
| Morningstar GBP Allocation 60-80% Equity | - | - | 7.0% |
| Any trades by Stuart Kirk will not take place within 30 days of being discussed in this column |