{"text":[[{"start":8.95,"text":"Long-haul airlines are braced for billions of dollars in extra costs as a looming shortage of carbon credits threatens to drive up prices for the permits required to offset their emissions."}],[{"start":19,"text":"The cost of credits could rise almost eightfold to $100 a tonne by 2035 as airlines’ demand outpaces supply, according to research by data provider MSCI Carbon Markets. "}],[{"start":32.45,"text":"The soaring prices could result in a bill of up to $127bn for the industry over the life of a major international emissions reduction scheme, which compels carriers to buy credits to offset their carbon emissions. "}],[{"start":45.650000000000006,"text":"Emirates could incur the highest expenses at $8bn — equivalent to a fifth of its 2025 operating revenue — over the life of the scheme, which covers emissions generated between 2024 and 2035, according to MSCI. "}],[{"start":60.00000000000001,"text":"The risk of increased prices comes after airlines and passengers have already been hit by uncertainty over air fares as the US-Iran war drove volatility in jet fuel pricing and put supplies at risk. Airline executives have long said that higher environmental costs feed into ticket prices. "}],[{"start":78.05000000000001,"text":"The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) aims to help achieve “carbon-neutral” growth in the sector. It requires airlines from at least 130 participating countries — including the United Arab Emirates, the US and the UK — to purchase carbon credits to offset emissions from global routes when they rise above 85 per cent of their 2019 levels. "}],[{"start":102.70000000000002,"text":"Carbon credits are typically linked to projects that reduce or remove greenhouse gas emissions — such as forest protection or regeneration programmes — but a shortage of eligible initiatives risks restricting supply, driving up prices. "}],[{"start":118.15000000000002,"text":"“Historically airlines have assumed these credits are just like any other input: liquid, with stable prices, available on tap when you need it,” said Ben Rattenbury, vice-president for policy at carbon data provider Sylvera. “And of course the situation with Corsia is the opposite.” "}],[{"start":136.3,"text":"Qatar Airways and United Airlines could pay $6bn and $5bn respectively over the life of the scheme in a “high demand and tight supply scenario”, according to MSCI, equal to 26 per cent and 8 per cent of their 2025 revenues. "}],[{"start":153.20000000000002,"text":"Emirates has the largest projected demand for credits because of its focus on long-haul routes through Dubai. Others in the top 10 include Turkish Airlines, Singapore Airlines, British Airways, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and American Airlines."}],[{"start":168.50000000000003,"text":"Under a more benign scenario modelled by MSCI, where supply rises more than expected and demand drops, Emirates could face a lower estimated cost of $2bn over the period to 2035, with costs for Qatar and United falling to $1bn each, MSCI said. "}],[{"start":186.80000000000004,"text":"Carriers would also have to pay a further carbon price if the EU presses ahead with an idea to impose additional charges for flights departing the bloc."}],[{"start":196.80000000000004,"text":"IAG, the parent company of BA and Iberia, said MSCI’s estimate that it would need to offset 6.7mn tonnes of greenhouse gases in the first compliance phase of Corsia, covering emissions between 2024 and 2026, was in line with its own modelling. Under the scheme it has until 2028 to buy credits covering these emissions. "}],[{"start":221.00000000000003,"text":"Compliance by US operators is uncertain after the Trump administration scuppered global efforts to impose a tax on shipping emissions. But some, including United, have indicated they will voluntarily comply. China is expected to join the scheme next year."}],[{"start":237.00000000000003,"text":"Turkish Airlines’ recent accounts disclose a provision for carbon pricing mechanisms including Corsia, while Singapore Airlines has highlighted its purchase of sustainable aviation fuel that airlines can use to reduce their offsetting requirements. "}],[{"start":250.95000000000002,"text":"Emirates and Qatar Airways declined to comment. Turkish Airlines, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and American Airlines did not respond to requests for comment. "}],[{"start":270.65000000000003,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1782700314_1955.mp3"}