{"text":[[{"start":11.35,"text":"Investors will be watching new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s semi-annual testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday for his latest views on inflation and interest rates and for an update on his plans to reform the central bank. "}],[{"start":25.049999999999997,"text":"At his first press conference as chair last month, Warsh said the Fed would ditch parts of its “forward guidance”, offering markets fewer clues on where policymakers expect monetary policy to be in the months ahead. "}],[{"start":37.199999999999996,"text":"That change has given Warsh’s appearances in front of the House of Representatives on Tuesday and in front of the Senate on Wednesday extra importance for investors hungry for any clues on how his thinking on the economy has evolved. The minutes of Warsh’s first meeting, released this week, indicate that many Fed rate setters were concerned about current levels of inflation, which are well above the bank’s 2 per cent target. "}],[{"start":61.199999999999996,"text":"Traders in the futures market are currently betting that the Fed will increase interest rates by a quarter point at least once by the end of the year. "}],[{"start":69.14999999999999,"text":"Warsh will also probably be asked by members of Congress about his wide-ranging plans to reform the Fed. The central bank on Wednesday announced appointments to the five task forces that Warsh has set up to evaluate everything from how the Fed communicates to the size of the bank’s balance sheet. "}],[{"start":86.64999999999999,"text":"“Investors will also be closely watching next Tuesday’s Warsh semi-annual Congressional testimony for additional detail and guidance on how the Chair is framing the overall state of the US economy and Fed policy . . . It’s a low-volume, low-conviction market at the moment — at least until Tuesday’s combination of [inflation data] and Warsh’s testimony,” said Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. Kate Duguid"}],[{"start":113.44999999999999,"text":"Will exports support China’s lofty GDP goals? "}],[{"start":117.14999999999999,"text":"China releases its June trade data on Tuesday followed by second-quarter GDP figures on Wednesday, offering the latest clues on whether Beijing is on course to meet its growth goals this year. "}],[{"start":128.79999999999998,"text":"China has increasingly relied on its swelling trade surplus to support growth at a time when weak domestic demand has sapped the economy of momentum."}],[{"start":137.95,"text":"Beijing has a growth target of 4.5 to 5 per cent for this year, which it is unlikely to miss. But growth is widely expected to slow in the second quarter, with forecasts from a Bloomberg poll of economists projecting a rise of 4.5 per cent from the same period last year, down from 5 per cent in the first quarter. "}],[{"start":158.2,"text":"Economists from ANZ attribute the expected slowdown in part to a pullback in government spending, the oil shock and longer holidays because of central government policies encouraging spring and autumn school breaks. "}],[{"start":171.29999999999998,"text":"“Slowing fiscal spending and strengthening revenue reflects the growing concern over both external and internal uncertainties amid the oil price shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. The government continues to prioritise building up a strong fiscal buffer, even at the cost of slower GDP growth,” they wrote, adding that they expected fiscal support to increase in the second half of the year. "}],[{"start":194.2,"text":"China’s swelling trade surplus has become an increasingly important source of growth for the country. Last year the country’s trade surplus exceeded $1tn for the first time. Net exports accounted for 1.6 percentage points of last year’s 5 per cent GDP growth, just under a third of growth, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. "}],[{"start":215.2,"text":"The median forecast from a Bloomberg poll of economists is for China’s surplus to hit $120.1bn, up from $105.4bn the previous month."}],[{"start":226.95,"text":"“Export momentum is likely to remain solid, supported by easing Middle East tensions and the ongoing global AI supercycle,” wrote analysts from Citigroup in a recent note. William Sandlund"}],[{"start":237.89999999999998,"text":"What economy is the new UK prime minister inheriting?"}],[{"start":241.34999999999997,"text":"It is all but guaranteed that Andy Burnham will be unpacking his bags at Number 10 Downing Street in a few weeks’ time, with the Greater Manchester mayor widely expected to take over as prime minister from Sir Keir Starmer. "}],[{"start":254.69999999999996,"text":"Burnham has pledged to create “good growth in every postcode” of the country. But, according to economists’ forecasts for next week’s May GDP figure, he has his work cut out. "}],[{"start":264.74999999999994,"text":"Economists at Deutsche Bank expect the economy to have contracted for a second consecutive month in May, shrinking another 0.1 per cent after April’s drop of the same size."}],[{"start":275.54999999999995,"text":"Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche, said survey data in the UK had been “unusually weak”, contributing to his view that a number of industries will be dragging on May’s growth figure, in particular the construction sector where recent surveys have been “dismal”, Raja said. "}],[{"start":293.99999999999994,"text":"England’s World Cup run — which has boosted spending in the hospitality sector — is expected to show up in GDP data later in the summer. But Raja warned: “We don’t expect it to last.” "}],[{"start":305.49999999999994,"text":"Investors will be watching closely to see how Burnham plans to boost growth in the UK. But until he has a clear blueprint, Raja said, the extra uncertainty itself will be enough to weigh on growth for the rest of this year. Emily Herbert"}],[{"start":326.24999999999994,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1783858129_9735.mp3"}