{"text":[[{"start":10.52,"text":"Investors will scour the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve’s rate setters — when the US central bank held its policy interest rate steady at 3.5-3.75 per cent for the fifth consecutive time — when they are released on Wednesday."}],[{"start":25.5,"text":"With energy prices still elevated due to the Iran war, helping to keep inflation above the Fed’s 2 per cent target, investors will be especially keen for any sense of the committee’s thinking on the outlook for prices and what might push more of its members into voting for rate rises."}],[{"start":40.8,"text":"The question has been given more urgency by new Fed chair Kevin Warsh jettisoning so-called forward guidance on interest rates and remaining fairly tight lipped over the Fed’s reasons for not raising rates last month."}],[{"start":52.5,"text":"The minutes “should provide an insight into how divided views are” within the Federal Open Market Committee, said Pooja Kumra, a rates strategist at TD Securities, pointing to Warsh’s repeated refrain that he wanted a “good family fight” among rate setters in discussing the way ahead."}],[{"start":67.76,"text":"Van Luu, global head of solutions strategy at Russell Investments, said he was “particularly interested in seeing how big the hawkish camp was, apart from the three dissenters”, after a trio of FOMC members argued in July for a rise."}],[{"start":82.2,"text":"Traders are putting only a roughly 30 per cent chance on the Fed raising rates by a quarter point at its September meeting, according to futures markets. Any hints of the Warsh-led Fed’s so-called reaction function — how it adjusts policy in response to changes in economic data — and which inflation measures it is focused on, could shift the odds one way or the other. Ian Smith"}],[{"start":101.24,"text":"Will Japan’s inflation bolster the case for a September rate rise?"}],[{"start":106.32,"text":"With the effect of the recent joint Japan-US currency interventions already fading and the yen creeping back towards multi-decade lows, investors will watch inflation data due on Friday for any evidence that would reinforce the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in response."}],[{"start":122.52,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect a core consumer price index that excludes food to have risen at an annual pace of 1.8 per cent in July, up from 1.6 per cent in June. Traders on swaps markets are pricing a two-thirds chance that the BoJ will raise its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point at its meeting next month, after it held the rate steady at 1 per cent in July."}],[{"start":146.32,"text":"“Inflation is almost certainly going to tick up . . . and the increase will be broad based, due to rising energy prices, which affect food, and the yen’s weakness, which is pushing up the price of things like housing and furniture,” said Stefan Angrick at Moody’s Analytics, predicting an increase in the index of 2 per cent."}],[{"start":165,"text":"Provisional GDP data on Monday is expected to show that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter, in line with the previous quarter, with an uptick in consumption adding to the case for rate rises. But Angrick argued that the weakness in the yen and the fact that it remains under pressure would probably be decisive for the BoJ."}],[{"start":184.96,"text":"Takeo Hoshi, a professor of economics at Tokyo University, said that with the market already expecting a rate rise next month, a CPI inflation rate “comparable to the recent numbers or even slightly higher is likely to solidify the BoJ’s expected decision”. David Keohane"}],[{"start":200.64,"text":"Is UK inflation bouncing back?"}],[{"start":204.08,"text":"Andy Burnham was given an unexpected boost in his first week as UK prime minister by data showing inflation at a 15-month low in June. But continuing hostilities in the Middle East mean economists expect the respite to be shortlived."}],[{"start":217.12,"text":"Official figures due on Wednesday are likely to show an uptick in year-on-year consumer price growth to 2.9 per cent in July, compared with 2.6 per cent in June, according to a Reuters poll of economists. That is some way above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target."}],[{"start":233.08,"text":"“After a series of good news on the inflation front, where June CPI sank to its lowest rate all year, we expect a summer bounce to kick things off in July,” said Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank."}],[{"start":245.52,"text":"The BoE said in a report late last month that it expects inflation to rise to 3.2 per cent towards the end of the year “as the effects of the higher energy prices continue to pass through”."}],[{"start":257.44,"text":"Services inflation — closely watched by rate setters as a gauge of underlying price pressures — is expected to decline to 3.4 per cent in July from 3.6 per cent in June, according to the Reuters poll. But economists at Barclays forecast a rebound in September, when the government’s summer VAT cut for attractions and children’s meals ends."}],[{"start":277.6,"text":"Traders are anticipating just one quarter-point rise to the Bank of England’s policy interest rate by the end of the year, from the current 3.75 per cent. But there is only a roughly one in four chance of that coming at the September meeting, according to levels implied by swaps contracts."}],[{"start":293.04,"text":"The swing factor is oil prices, which remain elevated at $87 per barrel for the global Brent crude benchmark. A shift higher could test the central bank’s patience. Madeleine Wright"}],[{"start":308.4,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1786889849_5431.mp3"}