Iran’s hidden leader stirs unease at home - FT中文网
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战争

Iran’s hidden leader stirs unease at home

Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence from public view has been a source of speculation in a country accustomed to frequent public appearances from the supreme leader
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{"text":[[{"start":7.24,"text":"Across Tehran, Mojtaba Khamenei looks out on to the city: from murals depicting the supreme leader, epic billboards showing the 56-year-old alongside his late father Ali Khamenei, and placards hoisted by loyalists who gather in the city’s squares in a show of strength."}],[{"start":24.46,"text":"The twist is that, more than six months since he was appointed, Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen at all. He has made no public appearances — not even at his father’s funeral in July — nor has he released any pictures, video or audio, governing instead entirely through written statements."}],[{"start":42.16,"text":"Regime officials say this is a necessary security precaution following dozens of US and Israeli assassinations of top officials, including his father. They say Mojtaba Khamenei, though injured in the strikes that killed the elder Khamenei on February 28, has recovered and is in full control."}],[{"start":60.98,"text":"But his conspicuous absence has become an increasing source of bafflement and suspicion inside Iran, where the presence and authority of the supreme leader has been a core pillar of the regime’s power."}],[{"start":71.4,"text":"“Either he was killed in the bombing, or is so injured that he cannot be presented,” said a plumber in Tehran, echoing a widely held view among the Iranian public. “I cannot believe these written statements. If he were alive, he could at least release one video.”"}],[{"start":86.76,"text":"Ever since the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran’s supreme leaders have made regular appearances. Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic republic, spoke repeatedly to the nation during his decade in power."}],[{"start":99.68,"text":"His successor Ali Khamenei appeared on television as often as once a week, addressing crowds and delivering closely watched speeches that set the political and ideological direction of the republic for almost four decades."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini extends his hand to bless a densely packed crowd reaching towards him in a Tehran schoolyard.
"}],[{"start":null,"text":"
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sits on a chair holding papers, with the Iranian flag displayed beside him.
"}],[{"start":113.12,"text":"The younger Khamenei was little known to the public before the conflict, spending decades studying and teaching at a religious seminary. Many senior politicians have never seen or spoken to him, and there are only a handful of public clips of him, including footage from his time as a military volunteer during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s."}],[{"start":132.16,"text":"His written statements have included political and religious guidance, announcements of senior appointments and repeated calls for Iran’s rival political factions to avoid division, saying last month that unity among Muslims was “the cornerstone to achieve a dominating Islamic civilisation”."}],[{"start":149.44,"text":"Regime insiders acknowledge that only a small number of people have direct access to him, with President Masoud Pezeshkian the only senior figure to have said publicly that he has met Khamenei."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
Mojtaba Khamenei, surrounded by a crowd, is greeted by people in Tehran in 2019 while someone photographs him with a digital camera.
"}],[{"start":160.84,"text":"Foreign diplomats in Tehran and elsewhere — who have no direct information about his health — say they believe he is active and in control, even if he may not yet wield the same authority as his father."}],[{"start":171.56,"text":"But Donald Trump claimed last month that while he believed Khamenei to be alive, the supreme leader had been “very seriously wounded” in the February attack. “The left side of his body, the arm, the leg, the whole thing,” the US president said."}],[{"start":185.52,"text":"Iran’s health ministry says Khamenei sustained only minor injuries and was in hospital for less than 24 hours."}],[{"start":192.02,"text":"The vacuum, however, has fuelled rumours among Iranians, many of whom question the narrative put out by a regime they distrust."}],[{"start":199.5,"text":"Some speculate that he did not survive the strike on his father’s compound, which also killed his wife, sister and niece. Others float conspiracy theories that foreign powers — from Russia and China to even the UK — are running Iran behind the scenes, or even discuss more far-fetched ideas that include the regime preparing body doubles to take his place."}],[{"start":220.2,"text":"Still others see Iran’s economic downward spiral — with year-on-year inflation around 90 per cent as the US blockades its ports — as evidence that the country is in effect ungoverned."}],[{"start":230.5,"text":"“When food prices go up on a daily basis, I think there cannot be a leader in this country,” said one woman, a cleaner in her thirties with two children who works in the capital city. “If he is alive, he should see me as his daughter and be sad that I cannot afford this life anymore.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"
A woman looks at her phone while standing in a bazaar lined with fruit stands and barrels of pickled vegetables in southern Tehran.
"}],[{"start":246.06,"text":"Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar, a reformist politician and former political prisoner in the north-eastern city of Mashhad, dismissed the conspiracy theories but said that they reflected the extent to which people have grown disillusioned with the republic."}],[{"start":259.34,"text":"“People tend not to believe whatever officials say because trust has been damaged between the nation and the state over a long time,” he said. “People think they have not heard the truth from officials.”"}],[{"start":271.66,"text":"Analysts also see Khamenei’s absence as a symbol of how the war has changed the regime, leaving behind one that is less personality-driven and fuelling the ascendance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — which many Iranians are convinced is in charge."}],[{"start":286.14,"text":"Speculation increased further after Khamenei did not appear publicly at his father’s funeral, despite the fact that Major General Ahmad Vahidi — the IRGC commander who himself had been in hiding — attended, along with three other of the late leader’s sons."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
General Ahmad Vahidi sits with others near Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's casket in a mourning hall, showing visible grief.
"}],[{"start":300.9,"text":"The IRGC, which was Iran’s most powerful institution even before the war, has been responsible for key wartime strategy, including the regime’s determination to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed regardless of the economic costs."}],[{"start":314.34,"text":"“We don’t have names of leaders anymore,” said a 40-year-old businessman based in Tehran. “The guards are definitely in charge, but even that doesn’t make things too clear.”"}],[{"start":324.8,"text":"For the committed minority of regime supporters, however, Khamenei’s continued absence is a logical response to the danger posed by the US and Israel, which have demonstrated their deep intelligence capabilities in the country."}],[{"start":336.94,"text":"“We cannot tolerate threats to Mojtaba Khamenei’s life, let alone anything happening to him,” said Zeinab, 29, a computer engineer, adding that Khamenei should not release audio or video until his security could be guaranteed. “One sentence from him is enough to show us the way.”"}],[{"start":353.9,"text":"Javadi-Hesar, the reformist politician, said it was clear that “there is unity of command and co-ordination in the decision-making system at the most sensitive time, which would not have happened without a person like Mojtaba Khamenei in charge”."}],[{"start":367.38,"text":"But Khamenei’s limited communication has nonetheless created space for public disagreement within the regime, which critics say has been plagued by factionalism."}],[{"start":375.88,"text":"When Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding with Trump in June designed to create a path to end the war, the supreme leader’s statement said he was initially opposed “in principle” to an agreement, even while approving the deal."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
Masoud Pezeshkian holds up a signed memorandum of understanding at a desk flanked by Iranian flags.
"}],[{"start":389.18,"text":"This ambiguity allowed hardliners to lash out at Pezeshkian and other pragmatists over the MoU, which soon fell apart, and accuse them of imposing their will on Khamenei."}],[{"start":399.68,"text":"In the face of such uncertainty, the regime has worked to shape the narrative and paint a portrait of the reclusive leader."}],[{"start":405.5,"text":"Pezeshkian said last month that he spent seven hours with the supreme leader discussing “all” of the country’s major issues, including livelihoods, employment, housing, sanctions and the war. Pezeshkian, a doctor, insisted Khamenei was “totally healthy”, arguing that anyone capable of conducting a seven-hour meeting could not have a serious physical problem."}],[{"start":426.24,"text":"The mother of Khamenei’s late wife also gave a lengthy interview to state television, promoting his religious virtue. His brother-in-law said this week that Khamenei was a fan of Christopher Nolan’s films and had watched them with his wife."}],[{"start":439.46,"text":"Others in the system, however, shrug off the speculation over his whereabouts. One regime insider said officials “are not going to listen to this psychological warfare and bring the leader out to be killed”."}],[{"start":450.18,"text":"Another, a relative of the supreme leader, even said the uncertainty was useful, helping keep Iran’s rivals on their toes."}],[{"start":457.14,"text":"“The enemy has no idea what’s going on in Iran and is kept in a state of guessing,” the relative said. “They are still asking, ‘Is Mojtaba Khamenei alive or not? Is he in charge?’ That’s good. Let them not know.”"}],[{"start":473.7,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789544846_4079.mp3"}

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