{"text":[[{"start":8.7,"text":"Voters in two German states head to the polls on Sunday to elect their regional parliaments in elections that could decide Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s political future."}],[{"start":17.96,"text":"Merz’s Christian Democratic Union is set to suffer losses in the city-state of Berlin and the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to surge."}],[{"start":31.62,"text":"The votes come two weeks after the AfD’s stunning victory in elections in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right party is trying to form its first regional government. Further losses for the CDU would embolden party critics blaming the chancellor’s low personal ratings for the setbacks."}],[{"start":48.84,"text":"In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the former home state of ex-chancellor Angela Merkel, support for the CDU has fallen below 7 per cent, close to the 5 per cent threshold for parliamentary representation. The AfD is neck and neck with the Social Democrats, on 36 to 37 per cent, according to the latest polls."}],[{"start":68.48,"text":"In Berlin, the hard-left Die Linke party is vying for first place on 21 per cent, slightly ahead of the governing CDU. Support for AfD in the capital is expected to double to 18 per cent compared with the previous elections in 2023."}],[{"start":83.88,"text":"Merz, who has been facing record unpopularity and growing unrest within his party in recent weeks, has insisted he has no intention of stepping down. He has vowed to press ahead with welfare reforms, upgrade the country’s armed forces and modernise its ageing infrastructure."}],[{"start":100.68,"text":"“Giving up is not an option,” he said the morning after the Saxony-Anhalt election."}],[{"start":106.28,"text":"But some CDU insiders told the FT that being ejected from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s parliament could trigger a full-blown leadership crisis."}],[{"start":114.48,"text":"A change in chancellor only 16 months into his four-year term would have repercussions across the EU, Nato and Ukraine. Merz’s government is Kyiv’s biggest military supporter."}],[{"start":126.48,"text":"A phase of political uncertainty in Berlin would come as EU governments are negotiating the bloc’s next seven-year budget in Brussels and just months ahead of presidential elections in France, Italy, Spain and Poland."}],[{"start":139.96,"text":"Merz has convened an emergency party meeting in Berlin on Sunday evening, during which he will seek to confront his critics and demand loyalty. Among the heavyweights due to attend are the CDU’s eight state premiers, who signed a letter backing the chancellor last week and calling for stability."}],[{"start":157.16,"text":"Germany’s constitution allows for a change in chancellor without fresh elections, provided a successor can rely on an existing majority in the Bundestag to be elected."}],[{"start":166.8,"text":"If Merz refused to step down, MPs could seek to remove him through a so-called constructive vote of no confidence."}],[{"start":174.12,"text":"But who might replace him is far from clear. Hendrik Wüst, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, is widely viewed as his most credible potential successor as CDU leader and chancellor. However, he faces elections in his own state in April."}],[{"start":189.38,"text":"Another contender is Markus Söder, the premier of Bavaria and chief of the CDU’s sister party, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria."}],[{"start":197.76,"text":"Any successor would have to win broad support in the Bundestag given the coalition’s narrow 12-seat majority."}],[{"start":204.18,"text":"The absence of an obvious alternative, coupled with the risk of further instability, may ultimately prove Merz’s strongest protection."}],[{"start":216.44,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789906406_2818.mp3"}