{"text":[[{"start":6.06,"text":"At about 6.20pm on a June evening in the spiritual home of football, the nation was settling down for a collective ritual: Brazil was about to play a game at the World Cup. Just then, my phone began to buzz with notifications. The latest instalment of a riveting political reality show had dropped — and there was a new twist."}],[{"start":26.18,"text":"In an Instagram video, Brazil’s former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro had blown the lid on a long-simmering family feud. The wife of the disgraced ex-president Jair Bolsonaro was laying into her stepson Flávio, the clan’s anointed heir who is running to be the country’s next leader. She was accusing him of humiliating her over an internal party dispute."}],[{"start":48.1,"text":"It was “a stab in the back”, she said, staring straight down the camera, her expression steely. “He said it would be better for me to stay out of party decisions . . . that I’d arrived yesterday and understood nothing about politics.”"}],[{"start":58.94,"text":"As the football pundits shared their pre-match analysis, Michelle’s broadside began to go viral. For almost half an hour she complained about online attacks by Flávio’s brothers and other unnamed followers of her husband. With the general election just a few months away, Michelle implied she would no longer be campaigning for Flávio."}],[{"start":80.619,"text":"That there was bad blood between Michelle and her stepsons was no secret. But this was a bombshell. The details of the disagreement — squabbles over regional alliances and candidates — didn’t matter. The open display of hostility exposed a rift at the heart of the first family of rightwing politics, even as it plotted its return to power. Flávio tried to appear unruffled. In a live broadcast just minutes before kick-off, he announced: “Today is match day. Nothing and nobody bothers me.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":110.9,"text":"Meet the Bolsonaros: a clan as radical as they are dysfunctional. Careening between conservatism and chaos, they practise a paranoid style of politics. Like the Trump family, they embody the political zeitgeist of the 2020s: the superficial and the sinister, the fusion of celebrity, social media and the quest for power."}],[{"start":130.62,"text":"The 71-year-old patriarch, Jair, is a hard-right demagogue. In 2018, he took Latin America’s most populous democracy by storm, winning the presidency and becoming the standard-bearer for a conservative populist movement with religious overtones that bears his name: Bolsonarismo. His supporters hailed him as a straight-talking crusader against a rotten system. His opponents denounced a reactionary bigot with violent rhetoric who was a threat to democracy in a country with a history of dictatorships."}],[{"start":163.82,"text":"As president from 2019 to 2023, Bolsonaro gained notoriety abroad for his overtures to Donald Trump and a surge in the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, as well as his mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic. At the end of his term in 2022, he narrowly lost a re-election bid against his great political rival, the current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in Brazil’s closest-ever election. Last year Bolsonaro was found guilty of conspiring to remain in post illegally through an unrealised plot that included plans to assassinate Lula. He was handed a sentence of 27 years."}],[{"start":203.42,"text":"Orbiting the fading sun king are his current wife and three eldest sons. Within the family Jair cuts a formidable figure, inspiring reverence in his sons. A former army officer, he calls them by military-style numbers to avoid mixing up their names. “They were afraid of their father. He’s like a god to them,” said someone who once knew the family."}],[{"start":224.9,"text":"It was Flávio, the 45-year-old senator for Rio de Janeiro, who was chosen to restore the dynasty’s political fortunes. Since his anointment, the eldest son has fallen into scrape after scrape, from an entanglement with an alleged fraudster to the very public spat with his stepmother. Another son is a social-media whizz who openly lambasted members of his father’s government. A third is living in self-imposed exile in the US and risks arrest upon return."}],[{"start":253.22,"text":"Despite all that has happened since Jair left office, the family franchise he built may be on the cusp of a stunning return to power. Next week, on October 4, Flávio will be the Liberal Party (PL) candidate for the presidency, on the ballot against his father’s 80-year-old enemy. Lula, a former trade unionist, still has strong support among low-income Brazilians who benefit from the minimum wage hikes and welfare programmes introduced by his Workers’ Party (PT). But some of Brazil’s small pool of swing voters are now drifting towards Flávio, whose father’s base lay in the middle to upper classes and Evangelicals. Flávio Bolsonaro did not respond to requests for comment for this story."}],[{"start":294.5,"text":"Most polls still place Lula just ahead in the first round, but in recent weeks, Flávio has narrowed the gap. If no candidate gets above 50 per cent in the first round of voting, the top two go to a run-off later in October. In that scenario, polls show a statistical tie, while prediction markets now give the challenger better odds than Lula of winning."}],[{"start":315.1,"text":"The choice for the electorate is stark. Lula expounds a socially progressive vision that allies say prioritises the poor in a deeply unequal country, but which critics claim is spendthrift, condemning the world’s 10th-largest economy to mediocrity. They accuse the leftwinger of being soft on the rising menace of drug gangs. Flávio, meanwhile, pledges to slash public spending and taxes with pro-business policies which he says will unleash Brazil’s potential. He wants to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 16 and build new maximum-security prisons. Detractors cast him as the puppet of a coup-monger who will be subservient to US interests. Among his political objectives, the one that stands out the most is personal: Free Dad."}],[{"start":357.86,"text":"The result will have an impact beyond Brazil’s borders. As rightwing leaders rise to power across South America, and Venezuela slides into effective US vassaldom, Brazil is an important piece in Trump’s quest for hemispheric dominance. Lula has stood up to pressure from Washington and warned of potential US interference to favour the Bolsonaros, who have long been Trump allies. Flávio promises to repair Brazil’s relationships with the US and ideological allies in Israel and Argentina. Another President Bolsonaro could be an important link in that chain, allowing for greater co-operation against cartels and more US access to Brazil’s supply of rare earths."}],[{"start":396.793,"text":"But beyond the policy differences, there is a fundamental clash in political approaches between Lula, who has over time become the defender of the institutional status quo, and the tear-it-all-down energy of the Bolsonaro clan."}],[{"start":410.288,"text":"Michelle’s outburst in June was just another controversy in an ongoing family drama worthy of a primetime telenovela. “We almost thought it was all over,” said one adviser, of Flávio’s campaign. Later that evening, after Brazil had beaten Scotland 3-0 in their final group stage game, Flávio insisted he had meant no offence to his stepmother and offered an apology. At that point, the election looked like Lula’s to lose."}],[{"start":434.788,"text":"At a Liberal Party convention in July to make Flávio’s candidacy official, delegates were treated to a speech from an unexpected guest. Jair Bolsonaro was summoned on to the big screen of a conference hall in the form of an AI-generated avatar. “I am imprisoned and silenced by an unjust and arbitrary decision,” said the avatar. “Welcome with open arms the person I have chosen to succeed me: flesh of my flesh, my son Flávio.” On the podium, the chosen son wiped an eye."}],[{"start":465.947,"text":"Flávio is the self-styled moderate of the family: a “vaccinated Bolsonaro”, in his own words. In the constant shadow of his father, he treads a difficult line defending Jair’s legacy and projecting the face of a new, modern Bolsonarismo, only lacking the coarse charisma of the original. He all but acknowledges being an inferior substitute. “How can you compare Pelé’s son to Pelé himself?” Flávio asked the FT in an interview earlier this year during which he refused to sit behind his father’s desk in the party HQ. Jair, he explained, “is one of a kind. I will never come close to him.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":494.38,"text":"While Jair still commands the loyalty of millions, Flávio has struggled to stir the same excitement. At first, even some of his allies privately considered him a weak candidate. Many business leaders and members of the centre-right political establishment wanted someone without the toxic surname who would be more capable of appealing to the middle ground. Their preferred option was the technocratic governor of São Paulo, another Bolsonaro protégé. But Jair’s endorsement was the one that mattered."}],[{"start":523.5,"text":"“Bolsonaro views his family . . . as a political enterprise,” said Thaís Oyama, author of Tormenta, a book about the politician. “He is extremely distrustful of outsiders.”"}],[{"start":533.154,"text":"Today, Jair is isolated, detained at home in an upscale gated community in Brasília with visits restricted and barred from public communication. Since his conviction, Michelle has been his lifeline. Michelle is Jair’s third wife, 27 years his junior and a year younger than Flávio. A devout Christian, she has become a figure of rising political influence, running for a senate seat in Brasília in the coming election. Alongside her political duties, she cooks and cares for Jair, administers his medicine and bathed him following recent surgery. Before he was granted house arrest on health grounds, she brought homemade meals to prison for her husband, who has long feared being poisoned, with uplifting messages or Bible verses written on the lids."}],[{"start":576.42,"text":"The two began dating around 2007, when Michelle was a 25-year-old parliamentary secretary and single mother. Jair hired her to his staff and they married shortly afterwards. They have a teenage daughter. The relationship between Michelle and her stepsons “has its highs and lows”, Jair conceded in an interview last year with the TV journalist Leo Dias. At times it has been demonstrably fraught. “A stepmother is not a relative. They don’t share the same blood,” said Silas Malafaia, a leading Pentecostal pastor and close Bolsonaro ally, who officiated at Jair and Michelle’s wedding. “There is a natural rejection.” Michelle Bolsonaro declined to comment for this story."}],[{"start":616.78,"text":"I spoke to the preacher at the headquarters of his Evangelical non-profit, in a middle-class neighbourhood in a sprawling suburb of Rio de Janeiro. The city is the cradle of Bolsonarismo, and where the three elder sons grew up. “The fight is over who is going to carry the name,” Malafaia said. In his reading, the stepsons think “she’s not going to be the one to inherit Bolsonaro’s political spoils. It has to be one of us.”"}],[{"start":641.82,"text":"Which one was not always clear. Flávio, or “01” as his father calls him, was for a long time a low-key political operator. A trained lawyer and the most easygoing of the men, he was a trusted lieutenant during his father’s presidency. With neatly trimmed hair swept to one side, Flávio bears a boyish resemblance to his father. An acquaintance describes him as “the most normal” son. Married with two daughters, Flávio likes to play tennis and was a passionate footballer who once dreamt of playing professionally, before suffering knee injuries. “He is affable [and] doesn’t hold grudges,” the acquaintance said."}],[{"start":675.831,"text":"“He was never one for aggressive speeches,” said Senator Hamilton Mourão, Bolsonaro’s former vice-president. “He’s a lad who is ready.”"}],[{"start":684.72,"text":"Sceptics point out that Flávio, a career politician since the age of 21, has never held executive office. They also recall his failed 2016 run for the Rio mayoralty. In a televised debate during the campaign he almost fainted, supposedly struck by food poisoning. Jair didn’t allow the communist candidate, a trained doctor, to provide him assistance. “She’s going to give my son strychnine,” he said, according to accounts from the Brazilian press at the time. “Do some push-ups,” he reportedly told Flávio, before accusing him of “chickening out”, the communist candidate later remembered."}],[{"start":718.933,"text":"Before Jair’s conviction, confidantes reported that Flávio was reluctant to take on the political mantle. In the end, there wasn’t much choice."}],[{"start":727.38,"text":"Carlos, 43, is known for his pugnacious online persona. Jair has said he gives “special attention” to “02”, who has his father’s face tattooed on one arm. After the boys’ parents divorced, Jair launched a then 17-year-old Carlos to run against his own mother for a Rio city council seat in 2000. The teenager won. Years later, Carlos would describe the incident as “a small family problem”, but said he and his mother made up afterwards."}],[{"start":756.04,"text":"Many Brazilians were introduced to Carlos at Bolsonaro’s presidential swearing-in ceremony in 2019. As an open-top Rolls-Royce rolled from Brasília’s cathedral towards congress, a beaming Jair and Michelle waved to onlookers. There too was Carlos, sitting in the back seat, in breach of security protocol. He had devised the social-media strategy credited as a key factor in the victory. Though his father and younger brother have referred to Carlos as the “family pit bull”, he was never seriously thought to be in the running to replace Jair."}],[{"start":787.82,"text":"The third brother Eduardo, “03”, most resembles his father in style. A combative ideologue, gun enthusiast and surfer, Eduardo speaks English and Spanish as well as his native tongue. Over the course of his career, the 42-year-old former congressman for São Paulo state has built international links with the Trumps and other ideological allies. I first saw Eduardo up close at the 2021 Brazilian edition of CPAC, the US conservative jamboree. Among the anti-abortion activists, monarchy restorationists, off-duty cops, libertarian economists, military widows and sundry other adherents of the broad church of Bolsonarismo, he was treated like a rock star, lecturing on “Cultural Marxism” and other supposed perils."}],[{"start":834.619,"text":"Eduardo periodically quarrelled with his father but, having lived in Texas since 2025 and been expelled from congress as a result, he was out of the succession equation anyway. In June, he was convicted in absentia for lobbying US authorities to interfere in Jair’s trial. After Trump imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Brazil last year, demanding Bolsonaro’s prosecution be dropped, Eduardo urged his compatriots to thank the US president. Eduardo did not respond to requests for comment."}],[{"start":865.06,"text":"Michelle’s relationship with her stepsons has been uneven. “I adore Flávio, and have a very special affection for Dudu [Eduardo],” she said in an interview last year with the journalist Alexandre Garcia. A person who knows the two brothers saw it differently. Their relationship with Michelle was “cold but civilised” they said. Michelle has said she no longer speaks with Carlos. “They couldn’t be in the same place,” a former government member recalled. There were also flare-ups with son number four, Jair Renan, a 28-year-old city councillor in Brazil’s conservative south whose mother is Jair’s second wife. The FT could not reach Carlos Bolsonaro or Jair Renan for comment."}],[{"start":903.957,"text":"“The sons never liked her,” said someone who knew the family years ago. Bolsonaro administration officials remembered recurring tensions, with Jair stuck in the middle. “Bolsonaro swings between her and the sons,” said one."}],[{"start":917.3,"text":"The recent bust-up between Michelle and Flávio was resolved after several weeks of mediation by allies convinced of the need for a united front. In mid-August stepmother and stepson met for a public reconciliation. They prayed and embraced. “Raise your hand, anyone who doesn’t have family problems,” Michelle said, to laughter from reporters. The display did not convince everyone."}],[{"start":940.14,"text":"Jair Bolsonaro came from modest middle-class origins in the interior of São Paulo state. He was a teenager when he enlisted in the army, rising to the rank of captain before a rebellious streak landed him in trouble — and a brief stint in military prison. He left the army and in 1988 was elected as a councillor in Rio and as a congressional representative two years later."}],[{"start":960.6,"text":"For most of his almost three decades as a lawmaker in Brasília, Jair was considered an eccentric and irrelevant extremist. As a congressman, his vulgar rants were explosive but had little impact. He praised the 1964-85 military dictatorship, defended torture, made homophobic remarks and told a leftwing female lawmaker that, “I wouldn’t rape you because you don’t deserve it.”"}],[{"start":983.34,"text":"But in the mid-2010s, as Brazil reeled from political and economic crises, Jair tapped into a growing popular backlash. He positioned himself as an anti-establishment alternative and built a grassroots following. Backed by the “beef, Bible and bullets” coalition — agribusiness, conservative Christians and security forces personnel — he promised to loosen gun laws, shrink the state, combat criminality and corruption. His motto: “Brazil above everything, God above everyone.”"}],[{"start":1015.02,"text":"In the run-up to the 2018 election, Lula, who had previously led the country between 2003-2011, was imprisoned for graft on convictions that were later overturned. Many voters blamed his party for the fallout of a recession and a bribery scandal, which had led to the 2016 impeachment of Lula’s chosen successor, Dilma Rousseff."}],[{"start":1035.596,"text":"Then, in September 2018, a month before the first round of voting, Bolsonaro was nearly assassinated. At a political rally, as a sea of cell phones filmed him being carried on the shoulders of a supporter through the teeming street, a knife shot out from the crowd. Bolsonaro was stabbed in the abdomen. Wincing in pain, his hands clasped to his torso as he fell backwards. But for two millimetres he would be dead, Jair said, following the surgery that saved his life that day. The implications were clear to him. “We’ve won,” he told aides from his hospital bed. “Now we just wait and do nothing.”"}],[{"start":1070.7,"text":"To his adoring fans, the attack burnished the messianic credentials of a man whose middle name is just that: Messias. He never accepted the police conclusion that the assailant, a delusional bricklayer formerly affiliated to a far-left party, acted alone. Jair was spared the scrutiny of TV debates and gained sympathy. He scored a resounding victory in a run-off against the Workers’ Party candidate, a stand-in who had stepped up after Lula was jailed."}],[{"start":1098.716,"text":"Jair “was the right man at the right time”, said someone well acquainted with Bolsonaro. “But you cannot deny his political intelligence.” His friends say he is far from the fire-breathing fascist depicted by the media. They portray a humble, informal and down-to-earth family man. “He has no taste for luxury. He wears cheap shoes and watches,” said Waldir Ferraz, a former longtime assistant. On foreign trips as president, he was said to pack instant noodles in his suitcase."}],[{"start":1126.079,"text":"A common description is brincalhão — playful, funny, a joker. Alberto Fraga, a federal congressman, retired military police officer and friend of 45 years, said Bolsonaro didn’t like mixing with other politicians. Even once president, “he’d go out in the street, ride a motorcycle, eat pastel in the market”. Others are less flattering. “He is cold and doesn’t express gratitude,” said one person who knew him. “He is fragile and gets easily upset.”"}],[{"start":1152.82,"text":"As president, Bolsonaro tested Brazil’s institutions. There were clashes with the supreme court, which he accused of hostility towards him and threatening free speech. He inveighed against the mainstream media and cast doubt on the integrity of the electronic voting system. When an investigation was opened into Flávio over suspected diversion of employee salaries from his office while a Rio state legislator, Jair labelled it persecution. The case was thrown out by the courts. Flávio has also faced scrutiny over ties with individuals allegedly linked to armed militias that run extortion rackets in Rio, though he has denied wrongdoing in either case."}],[{"start":1190.978,"text":"The pandemic was a watershed. Bolsonaro railed against state-level lockdowns, fearing the economic impact. He described Covid-19 as “a little flu”, promoted bogus treatments and was accused of delaying vaccine purchases."}],[{"start":1203.131,"text":"Some ministers urged him to tone down his remarks against vaccines. “He was stubborn,” said one. “Covid is what lost him the election.” On January 8 2023, two years after the storming of the US Capitol by Trump supporters, thousands of rightwingers trashed government buildings in Brasília, claiming the election had been stolen and calling for a military takeover. Jair was in Florida at the time. He condemned the actions, but an ensuing investigation concluded it was the last gasp of a scheme to illegally keep him in power."}],[{"start":1235.008,"text":"I met Bolsonaro not long after he was charged in March 2025. He didn’t look well that day. In a dark suit and open collar, reading glasses at the tip of his nose, he recited a handwritten list of some of those convicted for January 8 whom he considered “political prisoners”. A few times the ex-president glowered at questions not to his liking. He raged that Brazil was going the way of authoritarian Venezuela and pleaded for help from abroad. But as the interview wrapped up, the mood lightened. “It’s my 70th birthday tomorrow,” he said. “Do you plan to celebrate?” I asked. He became bashful and mumbled that his wife would celebrate for him."}],[{"start":1273.831,"text":"Months later, he was convicted of a crime so serious that he was handed what amounted to a life sentence. Prosecutors painted a sinister, wide-ranging conspiracy by Bolsonaro, former ministers and senior military officers: in the run-up to the election the ex-president had made repeated but unfounded claims about electoral fraud; police roadblocks were set up to hinder voting in Lula strongholds; and after the result, protesters were mobilised outside military barracks urging the armed forces to intervene. Investigators discovered a draft decree overturning the election result. They said Bolsonaro had assented to an operation involving plans to kill not only Lula, but also his running mate and a supreme court judge, Alexandre de Moraes, who had been the rightwinger’s chief nemesis while in office (and then oversaw the trial). The plot only failed because the army and air force commanders refused to go along with the scheme. Jair denied the charges and his allies, including Trump, claimed he was the victim of a witch-hunt. Jair Bolsonaro could not be reached for comment for this story."}],[{"start":1339.757,"text":"As the verdict approached, stress aggravated Jair’s persistent health problems linked to the stabbing. The supreme court tightened the screw with restrictions including a social-media ban. After Flávio broadcast a live phone call with Jair at a rally, a house arrest was imposed."}],[{"start":1356.05,"text":"The Bolsonaros’ secret weapon in this election may be Michelle. Before his conviction, Jair was already barred from office for electoral offences. And with her growing base and stature, talk had arisen of Michelle as a potential presidential running mate — or even candidate. Polls last year gave her better odds of defeating Lula than either Eduardo or Flávio. As her profile rose, a rivalry was mounting."}],[{"start":1380.9,"text":"As first lady, Michelle remained largely in the background, focused on personal causes including rare diseases and the deaf community. She came from a poor and unstable home outside Brasília, and has recalled selling oranges at traffic lights aged 10 and losing friends to drug trafficking. Inspired by a deaf uncle, she learnt sign language and joined an Evangelical church. Devotees speak of her as a woman of unbending principle. “What defines Michelle is faith,” said her friend Celina Leão, the governor of Brasília. “She has clear convictions and doesn’t go back on what she says. She isn’t driven by political pragmatism . . . She is the sweet Bolsonaro.”"}],[{"start":1418.3,"text":"Her real political debut was in July 2022, at the launch of Jair’s re-election campaign in Rio, where crowds chanted her name. “He is chosen by God,” she said of her husband in the impromptu speech. “The words of the Lord will be fulfilled in this land.” Flávio had convinced Michelle to speak as they left the hotel. “I had no idea Mi could speak like that,” Jair told allies afterwards."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":1443.922,"text":"A recent poll classified her as the most powerful woman in the country. “Of all the people in the political field, I have seen none so transformed as her,” said Robson Rodovalho, an Evangelical preacher and family friend. “She was very shy in the 2018 campaign. Today she feels a freedom to speak and self-confidence.”"}],[{"start":1462.02,"text":"In a Catholic-majority country, Michelle embodies the rise of Protestant Evangelicalism, a faith now comprising more than one-quarter of the population. The phenomenon is tied to a broader conservative shift in Brazil. In this important constituency she helped forge links for her husband, who, though a Catholic, was re-baptised in the River Jordan with his sons a decade ago."}],[{"start":1485.518,"text":"Jair’s 2022 defeat provided an opening. In recognition of his poor standing among women, Michelle was invited to lead the female branch of the Liberal Party and took to it with gusto, building up a national network of activists. But by late last year, Michelle was feeling undermined by the party machinery in her mission to launch female candidates. Matters reached boiling point when a protégée was passed over for a senate race, as part of a regional alliance of convenience with a longtime Bolsonaro foe. After Michelle publicly objected to the accord, the brothers closed ranks. Backed by Eduardo and Carlos, Flávio called his stepmother’s behaviour “authoritarian and embarrassing” and accused her of going against Jair’s wishes. Days later, “01” made his move. He announced that his freshly jailed father had chosen him as successor. Many high-placed Bolsonaro allies, including Michelle’s camp, were caught off-guard."}],[{"start":1536.805,"text":"Flávio fuelled confusion by saying he might step aside if his father were freed. On Christmas Day 2025, he sought to quell uncertainty by publicly reading a letter from his father affirming the choice. Yet doubts persisted into 2026."}],[{"start":1552.16,"text":"Then came the first of a series of embarrassing blunders. In May, a leaked tape revealed Flávio asking for money from the suspected fraudster behind a $10bn bank failure. The funds were supposedly for a hagiographic film about his father. Dark Horse is an English-language production chronicling Bolsonaro’s unlikely rise, featuring Jim Caviezel, the star of The Passion of the Christ and a Maga hero. The project received at least $12.3mn from the arrested businessman, who is at the centre of a broad corruption controversy roiling Brasília."}],[{"start":1583.766,"text":"Flávio denied wrongdoing, insisting it was a private arrangement. To regain control of the narrative, he travelled to Washington for a photo op in the Oval Office with Trump. Days later it backfired, with the announcement of new US tariffs on Brazil. Though Flávio publicly opposed the measures, Lula and his government again accused the family of betraying the homeland."}],[{"start":1604.923,"text":"Michelle’s video landed in the middle of the mess. The movement’s radical wing considered it sabotage. Jair was aware beforehand but had not seen it, due to a cell phone ban. An online backlash followed. Michelle was accused of being a feminist — a dirty word in Bolsonarismo. It took a toll. “She’s tired,” said an acquaintance. “She was never that close to Flávio. But she was hurt because she and Eduardo were the closest.”"}],[{"start":1630.46,"text":"Flávio publicly read a letter from Bolsonaro calling for unity and affirming he was the patriarch’s official spokesperson. Opponents ridiculed him for running to his father for help, and he received a 90-day ban on visiting Jair until after the first round of the election."}],[{"start":1647.564,"text":"Michelle still has a chance to shine: at Bolsonaro’s request, she is running for a senate seat in the Federal District of Brasília. Carlos will contest one in another state, while Jair Renan is standing to be federal deputy."}],[{"start":1661.34,"text":"With just over a week remaining before the vote, the wind is in Flávio’s sails. On the stump he has visibly grown in self-confidence."}],[{"start":1668.903,"text":"In an ironic twist, Justice Moraes, the same judge who jailed Jair, may unwittingly provide his key to freedom. The banking scandal that tainted “01” has in past weeks returned to engulf Brazil’s supreme court, following revelations of allegedly improper dealings between Moraes and the failed lender’s arrested former owner. (Both men deny wrongdoing.)"}],[{"start":1690.74,"text":"With Moraes on the ropes, new life has been breathed into Bolsonarismo, which has long accused the magistrate of unfairly targeting conservatives. Flávio has seized on the crisis in the court to shift the focus away from a police probe into the millions he procured for the biopic about his dad. (Investigators are looking into whether any of the funds bankrolled Eduardo in the US — an allegation that is denied by the brothers.)"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":1714.9,"text":"Although Lula hasn’t been implicated in the bank controversy, it has created a deepening impression of venality across Brasília’s top institutions that may hurt him nonetheless. Once an outsider himself, the veteran leftist and his party have ruled the country for much of the past quarter of a century. Might Brazilians discontented with the cost of living, crime and the same old face once again opt for change?"}],[{"start":1738.237,"text":"Questions remain about Flávio’s policy details and capability. But, given his milder temperament, some believe he might govern more conventionally than his father. Eduardo Fischer, who was briefly Flávio’s campaign strategist, said his client is resilient. “That gives me confidence about his ability if he is elected.”"}],[{"start":1759.22,"text":"If Flávio wins, the House of Bolsonaro will be consolidated as a political dynasty rather than a one-off anomaly. He would immediately push Congress to grant a comprehensive amnesty for the coup conspirators and January 8 convicts, with a presidential pardon as a fallback. Yet there are doubts over the legality of such measures, potentially triggering a constitutional crisis due to likely resistance from the supreme court. Given his apologism for the putsch plotters, opponents warn that he represents an insidious threat. “A [Flávio] victory would be a rupture with the project of Brazilian democracy and an absolute victory for Trump,” said the PT lawmaker Lindbergh Farias. “It would almost be the transformation of Brazil into an American colony.”"}],[{"start":1800.94,"text":"Should Jair receive a pardon or amnesty, he could in theory return to politics to run again in 2030, though age and health concerns make that prospect look increasingly unlikely. Moves to overturn criminal sentences might even pave the way for Eduardo’s homecoming, and a possible role in a Flávio administration. Given “03”’s international outlook, the foreign ministry has been mooted."}],[{"start":1824.894,"text":"But if Flávio loses, the picture looks very different. “If Flávio doesn’t win, Bolsonaro told me ‘the Bolsonaro era is over’,” said a confidante. A Flávio defeat could also open the door to a more moderate rightwing option, like São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas. With the Workers’ Party lacking an obvious successor after Lula’s last dance, the 2030 election may herald the beginning of the end of a decade of political polarisation."}],[{"start":1852.174,"text":"Still other scenarios exist. If Flávio and Carlos are not elected, but Michelle is voted into the Senate, the stepmother will be the Bolsonaro with the most senior national mandate. That could provide a launch pad for something bigger one day. Allies say she doesn’t talk about the top job, insisting her path is in God’s hands."}],[{"start":1873.3,"text":"The sons would not like it, but her candidacy might keep the family business going. After all, as Jair’s former foreign minister Ernesto Araújo says, Bolsonaro “is not just a man. It’s an idea, a vision of a Brazil that can change.”"}],[{"start":1887.16,"text":"Michael Pooler is the FT’s Brazil bureau chief"}],[{"start":1890.42,"text":"Find out about our latest stories first — follow FT Weekend Magazine on X and FT Weekend on Instagram"}],[{"start":1900.58,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1790498564_4452.mp3"}