{"text":[[{"start":0,"text":"US inflation jumped to 3.7 per cent in September as the war in Iran drove a rebound in fuel prices, piling pressure on Americans ahead of the midterm elections and prompting traders to raise bets on Federal Reserve rate rises."}],[{"start":26.58,"text":"Wednesday’s annual consumer price index figure was up from 3.4 per cent in August and ahead of the 3.6 per cent forecast in a Bloomberg poll of economists."}],[{"start":36.6,"text":"Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also came in ahead of Wall Street expectations, rising to 2.6 per cent from the previous month’s figure of 2.4 per cent."}],[{"start":48.78,"text":"Wednesday’s data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics marks the first time US annual inflation has risen since May. It underlines how the energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East continues to reverberate across the world’s biggest economy, weeks ahead of November’s midterm elections."}],[{"start":66.26,"text":"President Donald Trump has tried to contain the economic fallout from the conflict and douse fuel prices, as Democrats tap into voter frustration at the cost of living and seek to wrest control of Congress from his Republican Party."}],[{"start":79.3,"text":"But Wednesday’s data suggests that less affluent Americans in particular are being increasingly squeezed. Hourly earnings rose by just 3 per cent in September versus a year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of declining real wage growth."}],[{"start":93.24,"text":"“Inflation simply isn’t coming down quickly enough,” said Eric Winograd, chief economist at AllianceBernstein. “The bottom part of the K-shaped economy is losing ground, as anybody who has seen campaign ads on TV the last few weeks has heard.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":108.7,"text":"The inflation data increased bets that the Fed would raise rates again after it lifted borrowing costs for the first time in three years in September."}],[{"start":117.28,"text":"Vanguard’s investment chief Greg Davis warned the central bank now “has its work cut out for it” and might need to raise rates as many as three more times over the next year."}],[{"start":125.9,"text":"The Fed’s latest projections show rate-setters are broadly split on whether they will need to raise borrowing costs once or twice more over the current cycle. Kevin Warsh, the central bank’s chair, does not submit a forecast for the “dot plot” but is seen as holding views closer to the hawkish end of the Federal Open Market Committee."}],[{"start":144.54,"text":"“Our view has been they were going to hike another one to two times in this hiking cycle,” Davis said. “But if the numbers keep coming out the way they have, I wouldn’t be surprised to see two to three rate hikes between now and the next 12 months.”"}],[{"start":159.8,"text":"Market expectations of an October increase had faded in recent weeks after Fed officials indicated they were not in a rush to act again. Traders in the futures market on Wednesday afternoon were pricing in a roughly 33 per cent chance of an October rise, up from 22 per cent before the release of the data."}],[{"start":178.1,"text":"Jeff Schulze, head investment strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, said the latest data “bolsters the case for additional rate hikes, but recent dovish Fed-speak . . . suggests that the bar is high for an immediate hike”."}],[{"start":190.8,"text":"“I don’t think there is going to be urgency to react to this one report and raise interest rates six days before midterms,” added Joe Lavorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “The Fed doesn’t want to put itself into a political fight unnecessarily. But they will almost certainly go again in December.”"}],[{"start":209.84,"text":"Treasury yields initially jumped following the figures, with the two-year rising as much as 0.16 percentage points to 4.95 per cent, approaching the 28-month high it hit in September. It retraced most of that move in the afternoon to trade at 4.81 per cent."}],[{"start":227.76,"text":"The months-long sell-off in the Treasury market had abated in recent days, as bond investors began to snap up government debt. But the recovery in bonds was almost fully erased by Wednesday morning’s move."}],[{"start":240.641,"text":"The US dollar strengthened 0.4 per cent against the euro to its highest level since May 2025."}],[{"start":246.36,"text":"The September inflation rise was largely driven by higher fuel prices, with the BLS’s index tracking petrol prices up 34.2 per cent year on year and 9.1 per cent higher than August’s figure."}],[{"start":259.2,"text":"Petrol and diesel costs eased during the summer from the initial highs after the war broke out. But they have bounced back in recent months as tensions flared in the Middle East, sending the price of diesel to record highs and prompting a flurry of policy interventions by Trump."}],[{"start":274.24,"text":"Analysts noted that the rise in core inflation suggested price pressures were becoming more entrenched, with rises in everything from cars and airfares to education and toys."}],[{"start":284.84,"text":"“Today’s CPI report stands out as the first of the year in which price pressure appeared to be showing up in most corners of the consumption basket at once,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede."}],[{"start":303.6,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1792020735_3376.mp3"}