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{"text":[[{"start":8.65,"text":"AI is set to boost growth in major economies far beyond China and the US in the coming decade without leading to mass job losses, according to an FT poll of economists, in a strikingly optimistic assessment that clashes with warnings of profound risks to society from the technology."}],[{"start":27.25,"text":"In the poll of 94 economists across Asia, the US and Europe, 54 per cent of respondents said many or nearly all G20 countries would see significant economic and productivity gains over the next decade because of AI. "}],[{"start":41.2,"text":"“AI’s benefit will be felt beyond the place of innovation — it will extend to economies that adopt and augment the use of AI,” said Jumana Saleheen, chief economist at asset manager Vanguard. “Adopter economies, who use the AI as a ‘plug and play’, will also win, but with a time lag — think of them as second winners.” "}],[{"start":61.25,"text":"The upbeat take comes in the face of rising alarm at the technology’s disruptive potential, with leading industry figures, including Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and OpenAI’s Sam Altman, calling for innovation to be slowed given the risks of unpredictable and destructive behaviour from AI agents. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":79.65,"text":"Some economists have previously warned that the benefits of AI would remain heavily concentrated among owners of cutting-edge companies in big economies such as the US and China, shifting wealth away from workers to shareholders. Others, including at the Bank for International Settlements, have warned of a costly reversal of the investment and stock market boom associated with AI, dealing a potentially significant blow to growth."}],[{"start":105.45,"text":"By contrast, the FT poll suggested that AI’s productivity gains would be driven by widespread and effective adoption of the technology by businesses around the world, much as the benefits of electricity and computers spread far beyond their countries of origin. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":121.3,"text":"“Countries do not need to develop frontier AI themselves to benefit — productivity gains can come through adoption by workers and businesses, AI-enabled imports, knowledge spillovers and cheaper goods and services,” said Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy. "}],[{"start":137.45,"text":"“The size of the dividend will vary, but the multiple opportunities for gains suggest the effect on income growth should be positive across the G20.” "}],[{"start":146.29999999999998,"text":"The optimistic findings chime with research from the World Bank in June, which found that gains from AI could surpass those driven by electrification. "}],[{"start":155.1,"text":"If realised, gains of this scale could help reverse the long-term downward trajectory in global productivity growth, which has diminished to an average of 1.4 per cent per year in the 2000s to 1.1 per cent in the 2010s and, absent a major technological shift, is expected to average about 0.8 per cent this decade, according to the World Bank. "}],[{"start":177.5,"text":"Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, said in August that AI was becoming “a growth engine for the global economy” as investment spread beyond the US."}],[{"start":189.45,"text":"In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF said the global economy had proved resilient, with AI-driven technology momentum providing “an important offset to the geopolitical headwinds”. But it said the outlook for particular countries depended on their position in technology value chains, domestic investment capacity, and readiness to absorb new technologies."}],[{"start":212.1,"text":"“The main way in which the benefits of new technology are transmitted is via lower prices, that will — by definition — benefit all people,” said Tim Leunig, visiting professor at the London School of Economics. "}],[{"start":224.65,"text":"However, the poll also suggested that countries at risk of falling behind included less-developed nations with weaker infrastructure and emerging countries reliant on providing outsourcing services that can be substituted by AI. "}],[{"start":238.35,"text":"African countries in particular are at risk of falling behind because of weaker infrastructure, 32 respondents warned, with Nigeria, Somalia and Ethiopia among those singled out. "}],[{"start":250.15,"text":"Léa Dauphas, chief economist at the research group TAC Economics, warned of the risk of a “compounding gap” in which productivity rises faster in countries that are early adopters, increasing their capacity to invest further in AI. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":266.35,"text":"Countries whose growth models rely on labour-cost advantages in activities increasingly vulnerable to automation are also at risk, according to the FT poll. For example, the Philippines is reliant on business-process outsourcing, call centres and routine administrative services. "}],[{"start":283.3,"text":"“AI could erode parts of their current comparative advantage faster than they can build new ones,” said Philipp Lausberg, senior policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, who also sees risks for a range of other countries, including Mexico and Indonesia. "}],[{"start":299,"text":"Europe presented a more divided picture. The Nordic countries, UK, France and Germany were frequently cited by poll participants as among potential winners. However, economists also warned about regulation slowing adoption in the region."}],[{"start":314.4,"text":"“I see Europe as very vulnerable, both because I expect an increasing set of regulatory restrictions on adoption . . . and because of our lack of presence in the entire supply chain,” said Luis Garicano, a professor at the London School of Economics, while noting some exceptions in northern Europe. "}],[{"start":333.65,"text":"Even within countries, the effects will be highly differentiated, economists said, as job markets are reshaped. Many economists mentioned administrative, customer service, junior professional and other routine cognitive jobs as the most vulnerable. "}],[{"start":348.84999999999997,"text":"However, the majority of economists said this should not translate into a large or lasting rise in unemployment, arguing that new jobs would be created and that AI could help economies struggling with shrinking working-age populations. "}],[{"start":362.9,"text":"AI “will change the character of jobs,” said Dame Diane Coyle, Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. “But I don’t expect a jobs apocalypse.” "}],[{"start":374.04999999999995,"text":"How is AI affecting your work and everyday life? Please click here to participate in our FT reader survey."}],[{"start":389.49999999999994,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1792301079_9605.mp3"}