Iran war tilts balance of global oil power towards Americas

{"text":[[{"start":10.41,"text":"Donald Trump’s war in Iran is driving an oil and gas production and export boom in the Americas, as customers race to secure reliable supply amid a growing realisation that Middle East disruption could be prolonged."}],[{"start":21.6,"text":"Countries from Canada to Brazil have set production records this year, with total output in North and South America on course to jump 10 per cent in the two years ending December 2026, according to Rystad Energy."}],[{"start":34.881,"text":"Venezuela and Suriname are poised to increase production sharply following a wave of investments from western oil concerns, and output in the US is also rising, with a 15 per cent increase in exports of crude and petroleum products such as diesel to Europe, Asia and Oceania."}],[{"start":51.94,"text":"Seven months into the war, parts of the Americas, particularly Venezuela and Argentina, are starting to emerge as Trump envisioned through a policy he dubbed the “Donroe doctrine” — a US-led sphere of influence with vast energy resources and the potential to counterbalance other global energy power centres such as the Middle East."}],[{"start":70.825,"text":"Global markets have lost more than 2bn barrels of crude due to attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption in the Middle East has caused a prolonged surge in the price of oil, liquefied natural gas and petroleum products and is causing customers and investors to diversify by signing supply contracts and boosting investment in the Americas."}],[{"start":92.64,"text":"Analysts said the oil and gas boom is transforming economies in South America and further enshrining the Americas as a counterweight to the Middle East. The Americas cannot fully replace low-cost Middle East supply, but it is moderating global prices and will limit Opec’s pricing power in the future, they said."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":111.22,"text":"“Even countries in the Gulf will seek diversification by investing in the Americas,” said Daniel Yergin, vice-chair of S&P Global and author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. “This disruption is shaking up supply chains and creating new regional energy development,” he said."}],[{"start":127.92,"text":"Schreiner Parker, analyst at Rystad Energy, said: “The rise in production in the western hemisphere has taken the medium-term pricing discretion away from the Gulf Cooperation Council, particularly the Saudis. Venezuela, Argentina, Guyana, the US and Canada are all going to play a role in that story.”"}],[{"start":144.56,"text":"Argentina is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the shift as a decade of development begins to bear fruit at one of world’s largest shale deposits called Vaca Muerta. President Javier Milei, an ally of President Trump, has actively courted oil industry investment. Fast-rising oil production helped drive Argentina’s total exports above $10bn for the first time in September, according to data published Monday by the national statistics agency."}],[{"start":174.559,"text":"This month TotalEnergies said it would invest $10bn in the country on new offshore developments and an expansion of its existing onshore gas projects. In August Harold Hamm, the US shale oil magnate and prominent Trump supporter, unveiled a multibillion-dollar drilling campaign in Vaca Muerta."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":193.132,"text":"“Having a counterbalance to Middle East supply is so important in my opinion for energy security for the world and I think it will serve America well in the future that we have US companies investing in South America and growing production,” Hamm told the FT."}],[{"start":207.265,"text":"Chevron is one of the biggest foreign investors in Argentina and has increased crude production from 5,000 to 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in just three years at El Trapial, a shale oilfield in Vaca Muerta. In the next ten years Chevron plans to invest $13.8bn in El Trapial and triple production in Argentina where it has a non-operating stake in two other projects."}],[{"start":233.92,"text":"Ana Simonato, Chevron’s country manager for Argentina, said the Middle East conflict had sent a clear signal about the importance of strategic diversification."}],[{"start":241.231,"text":"“That is why Argentina is becoming significant within that global portfolio,” Simonato said. “You see places like Canada and other regions emerging as promising prospects.”"}],[{"start":256.59,"text":"Last month the US Export-Import Bank announced $7bn in financing to help Argentina develop energy and critical minerals."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":261.036,"text":"Washington has boosted Venezuela’s oil sector by capturing former leader Nicolás Maduro in January and inviting international oil companies to invest $100bn to restore production to its pre-socialist peak of 3mn b/d. This year so far production has jumped by 10 per cent to about 1.2mn b/d."}],[{"start":281.57,"text":"Adnoc, the state-owned oil company of the United Arab Emirates, Shell and BP and a host of other companies have signed early-stage deals with Caracas, while Chevron has committed $7bn over five years to more than double its production to approximately 600,000 barrels per day."}],[{"start":299.84,"text":"Investors seeking a less risky destination in the Americas are choosing Canada, which is the world’s fourth-largest crude supplier but whose government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, aims to become an “energy superpower”."}],[{"start":313.242,"text":"Almost four out of five of institutional investors say constraints on Middle East crude and LNG exports have made them more likely to invest in Canadian energy companies, according to a survey by ATB Cormark Capital Markets."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":326.24,"text":"Last month a consortium led by Shell announced a $20bn-plus investment to double the production capacity of LNG Canada, a plant on the west coast of British Columbia that will export up to 28mn tonnes of LNG a year. Two other flagship projects — Ksi Lisims LNG and a pipeline carrying up to 1mn barrels a day of crude from Alberta to the west coast for export to Asia — are now expected to get the green light, according to the survey of investors."}],[{"start":354.16,"text":"In the US, Wood Mackenzie is predicting a rapid production increase due to the prolonged Iran conflict. By December 2027, the consultancy said shale production will be about 11.8mn barrels per day, about 1mn higher than before the war began."}],[{"start":372.24,"text":"Rystad’s Parker said the Iran war has put reliable access to resources in stark relief for global customers: “Geography can be as important as geology in today’s new world and the Atlantic margin is going to be the beneficiary of that.”"}],[{"start":385.28,"text":"Data visualisation by Eva Xiao in New York"}],[{"start":390.8,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1792493883_7879.mp3"}