{"text":[[{"start":4.13,"text":"The ceasefire agreed by the US and Iran was greeted with relief by markets and oil traders. Whether it results in a lasting peace is unclear, especially given continuing attacks on vital infrastructure. But even if it does, this oil shock will take a long time to unwind. "}],[{"start":24.06,"text":"In the very short term, logistics remain a constraint. There are over 800 vessels stuck in the Gulf, reports Bloomberg citing Kpler data, of which 70 per cent are carrying oil, fuels and oil products. Prewar, about 140 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz every day. With Iran set to monitor ships for weapons and demand they pay tolls in cryptocurrency, flow rates are likely to be lower than usual and the backlog will take time to clear. "}],[{"start":57.34,"text":"The two-week ceasefire, meanwhile, poses a dilemma for incoming vessels. The round trip in and out of the Strait, including loading, takes up to 9 days, Wood Mackenzie estimates. So those huddling outside the Gulf need to either start their engines quickly or wait until they have reasonable certainty that the ceasefire will be extended. "}],[{"start":79.28,"text":"Now fast forward by a few weeks and assume the logistical snarl-up clears. From that point, exiting vessels will take about a month to reach Asian markets and up to two to get to Europe. Seeing them sail reassuringly across the seas may be enough to drive down the price of crude somewhat. But the price of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, which suffered more severe disruption owing to lower storage levels, will only follow them down with a lag. "}],[{"start":112.50999999999999,"text":"This is especially true for big importers such as Australia, which relies on fuels from countries in Asia. Some, like China, slowed or halted exports. It must now wait for its suppliers to get hold of crude, gain enough confidence to stop stockpiling, and then deliver their cargos. "}],[{"start":132.85999999999999,"text":"Even when such dislocations have been overcome and the global oil trade is back up and running, exports from the Strait of Hormuz will be lower than they used to be. Some Middle Eastern oilfields, gas liquefaction plants and refineries were damaged during hostilities and will take time to restart. There is little clarity over the full size of the disruption but, by way of example, QatarEnergy has said that repairing its two struck liquefaction trains will take three to five years. "}],[{"start":164.14999999999998,"text":"Producers with spare capacity, mainly Saudi Arabia, may well take up the slack. That’s important. After all, the world has suffered a significant production shortfall for almost 6 weeks, for a total of perhaps 600mn barrels lost — and counting. At a rate of 1mn barrels a day of overproduction, it would take not far off two years to make up the buffers. The extra demand from storage rebuilding will keep oil prices sprightly. And there’s another factor discouraging oil prices from sinking back down to their prewar level of around $60 per barrel: it will be a long time before the singed energy world forgets to price in risk. "}],[{"start":213.80999999999997,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1775703675_7441.mp3"}