{"text":[[{"start":6.53,"text":"Oil from the Gulf takes up to 45 days to reach its destination. That means that the last of the tankers that set sail before the US launched its war on Iran 45 days ago are now coming in, with very little in their wake. With predicted scarcity turning into real shortages, it is time for governments, companies and individuals to think through what “running out of oil” might actually look like. "}],[{"start":35.11,"text":"At present, the risk of going without is largely a factor of where in the world you are. Countries that were particularly dependent on the Gulf for oil and refined products — mostly in Asia — are the first to suffer. That group includes South Korea, India, Malaysia and Singapore. Stockpiles can cushion the blow to some degree. But average stocks only cover about a month of demand, according to Goldman Sachs analysis of data from several Asian countries excluding China."}],[{"start":66.9,"text":"Much of Asia has therefore begun dabbling in demand containment: remote working for public servants, limiting air conditioning and encouraging public transport. Australia is notable for suffering potential knock-on effects. It imports most of its refined products from Asian hubs. With China and South Korea restricting exports, it too faces the threat of scarcity and panic-buying at petrol pumps."}],[{"start":95.09,"text":"Should the strait remain closed for a prolonged period, however, it may not be those early sufferers who experience the most pain. Over time, flows will reorganise, turning oil into a liquid, global market again — albeit one that is perhaps 10mn barrels a day short, on Wood Mackenzie estimates. That’s roughly the amount by which consumption fell during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. "}],[{"start":122.57000000000001,"text":"At that point, the determinant of scarcity shifts back from where you are to how much you can pay. Some Asian countries are disadvantaged on both counts. But Australia is likely wealthy enough to attract fuel cargos from other suppliers, including the US. "}],[{"start":141.22,"text":"That’s where things become tricky, though, because the wealthy in a poor country may outcompete the poor in a wealthy country. And governments, even in richer countries, may have to put their thumb on the scale to make sure that strategic users get what they need. Think, for example, the NHS in the UK."}],[{"start":161.05,"text":"Cushioning consumers is a great temptation, too: protests, like those which have erupted in Ireland, show that rising fuel prices quickly become a political issue. In the US, petrol prices have crossed $4 a gallon, almost a third higher than a year ago as midterm elections loom in November. But where the chosen tool is subsidies or tax cuts, it simply means prices have to rise even more to bring demand, globally, into line with supply. "}],[{"start":193.23000000000002,"text":"Oil prices tend to overshoot on the way up, because it takes time for people to adjust and find alternatives such as building more renewables. That also means that the longer fuel remains very expensive, the greater the chance some demand never comes back. If the world runs short of oil for long enough, it will eventually find it has too much. Little comfort, though, for governments that have to make hard choices in the meantime."}],[{"start":233.07000000000002,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776265212_9247.mp3"}