{"text":[[{"start":13.69,"text":"Iran will have to start significantly reducing its oil production within about a fortnight if a US naval blockade succeeds in choking off its exports, though Tehran believes it can resist the economic pressure better than the Trump administration can weather high prices. "}],[{"start":30.769999999999996,"text":"The country’s storage tanks, used to hold crude that cannot be loaded on to tankers and exported, are just over 51 per cent full, according to satellite data from Kayrros."}],[{"start":43.099999999999994,"text":"At current export levels of about 1.8mn barrels a day, that leaves space for roughly 16 days of output before the country surpasses its record storage level of 92mn barrels during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. "}],[{"start":60.239999999999995,"text":"In practice, Iran is unlikely to wait until its storage tanks are full before it follows its Gulf neighbours in curtailing production. After years of operating under varying international sanctions regimes, it has plenty of expertise in adjusting its output. "}],[{"start":78.19,"text":"Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultancy Energy Aspects, estimated that Tehran would continue pumping for “10 to 15 days” if exports are halted, before starting to crimp output at multiple fields."}],[{"start":92.27,"text":"He added that a normal number of tankers had entered the Gulf in recent days to begin loading at Iranian oil terminals, giving Tehran the possibility of storing further oil onboard ships. Throughout the conflict, Iran has loaded one or two supertankers each day, capable of carrying 2mn barrels each, at its main export hub of Kharg Island. "}],[{"start":117.16,"text":"Regional producers that have seen about 350mn barrels of crude trapped in the Gulf since the conflict began started cutting their production well before they filled up storage."}],[{"start":129.41,"text":"While those decisions were partly driven by fears of missile strikes on operating fields, it is generally seen as better to restrict output early rather than shutting fields entirely, due to the risk of long-term damage to reservoirs."}],[{"start":144.9,"text":"About half of Iran’s 3.6mn b/d of production is consumed domestically."}],[{"start":152.03,"text":"“Iran may be willing to keep going for longer, particularly if it believes diplomacy could end the blockade relatively quickly,” Bronze said, adding that he did not expect any immediate “deep cuts” to Iranian supply."}],[{"start":167.63,"text":"Unlike its neighbours, Iran has continued exporting crude through the strait during the six-week conflict. Sales were further boosted last month after Washington temporarily eased sanctions to calm global markets, allowing Tehran to secure higher prices."}],[{"start":186.07,"text":"The country’s oil minister said on Monday that sales had been “favourable” and that the proceeds would be used towards “reconstruction of the industry”."}],[{"start":195.42,"text":"Iranian analysts said crude revenues during the war have nearly doubled compared with prewar levels and are significantly above the government’s 2026 budget projections."}],[{"start":208.25,"text":"The US sanctions waiver on Iranian oil is set to expire on April 19."}],[{"start":214.94,"text":"Brenda Shaffer, an Iran energy expert and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, said it had been a surprise that the US had not reacted sooner to address Iran’s efforts to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz."}],[{"start":230.72,"text":"“The traditional model was that closing the Strait would hurt Iran too, so it would not be able to sustain it for a long period. The US shift [to block Iranian exports too] will now make the continuation of the war less sustainable,” she said."}],[{"start":248.01,"text":"Miad Maleki of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a US think-tank hawkish on Iran, estimated a blockade could inflict losses of about $435mn a day."}],[{"start":260.76,"text":"Sanam Vakil, Middle East director at Chatham House, said that the blockade would “put a lot of pressure” on the republic, which considers the war a battle for its survival. "}],[{"start":271.71,"text":"“The mentality of the regime is one of stubborn resistance at the expense of the population, but it will come at a cost; further legitimacy crises and punishment of the people,” Vakil said. "}],[{"start":284.46,"text":"“[But] from a psychological perspective, they can endure for a longer period than President Trump. This is a test of wills and endurance.”"}],[{"start":295.14,"text":"Iranian analysts also questioned whether a blockade could be enforced."}],[{"start":300.68,"text":"The country has previously responded forcefully to attempts to seize its tankers and could use allied Houthi rebels in Yemen to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. "}],[{"start":311.52,"text":"“Crude exports cannot simply be stopped,” said Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union."}],[{"start":323.12,"text":"“Trump is making a lot of noise now so he can later claim that Iran backed down because of his threats if an agreement is reached.”"}],[{"start":333.1,"text":"Saeed Laylaz, an Iranian analyst, said the US blockade could escalate the war to the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia has been redirecting a large share of its oil exports."}],[{"start":344.49,"text":"“Iran’s capacity for retaliation is very high,” Laylaz said. “If Iran’s oil exports are halted, the Bab al-Mandab Strait [at the southern end of the Red Sea] will be closed.”"}],[{"start":357.13,"text":"A former senior oil official in Tehran also suggested that Iran’s tankers would “shoot down any helicopters approaching its oil tankers”."}],[{"start":366.93,"text":"The US has indicated any interception of tankers would take place far from Iranian shores. It is not clear if Iranian tankers are armed."}],[{"start":376.83,"text":"Bronze at Energy Aspects also estimated that Iran has as much as 150mn barrels of oil loaded on tankers outside the Strait of Hormuz, which may allow it to maintain sales for several weeks."}],[{"start":390.83,"text":"That will give Iran a cushion to continue to supply its customers while the US blockade continues. "}],[{"start":398.77,"text":"“This is an attempt to remove Iran’s leverage,” he said, referring to the blockade. “But the administration is unlikely to be able to afford to wait.”"}],[{"start":418.80999999999995,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776265642_8674.mp3"}