{"text":[[{"start":6.9,"text":"Obesity rates are on the rise globally with more than 1bn adults now classified as living with obesity. What was once mostly an adult condition is also reshaping childhood. For the first time in history, there are more children living with obesity than those who are underweight, according to Unicef."}],[{"start":28.090000000000003,"text":"Weight-loss drugs are now available in most countries. Originally developed for Type 2 diabetes, GLP-1 therapies are the first medications capable of delivering clinically meaningful weight loss comparable to metabolic surgery."}],[{"start":45.02,"text":"But in some countries they can cost up to $1,300 per month, putting them out of reach for many people. In the US, uptake of GLP-1 therapies has been closely tied to insurance coverage. Cross-country comparisons show higher adoption in markets where obesity drugs are reimbursed than where patients pay out of pocket."}],[{"start":69.16,"text":"Does that mean the world needs cheaper weight-loss drugs? Not on their own. Obesity is driven by a mix of diet, environment and behaviour, so medication alone is not the answer. But cost still matters because it determines how widely these drugs are used and how large this market becomes for drugmakers."}],[{"start":90.61,"text":"Until now, the economics of weight-loss drugs still resemble traditional pharma. Supply remains constrained, patents are strong and Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have significant pricing power. "}],[{"start":104.64,"text":"But that may not last much longer. Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, is beginning to lose patent protection across key markets. Preprint studies — research that is yet to complete peer review — suggest the drug could be mass produced for $3 for a monthly dose in its injectable form, or around $16 as a pill. Pricing is already fragmenting across markets. "}],[{"start":132.98,"text":"China will drive much of this shift. More than 60 drugs are in advanced testing, with cheaper semaglutide versions on the way. China has the manufacturing scale to produce these treatments at a fraction of their list prices. Partnerships with global pharma groups suggest that some Chinese-developed molecules are competitive with leading global treatments, even if many remain early stage. "}],[{"start":159.17999999999998,"text":"Companies such as United Laboratories and Innovent Biologics show how this is already playing out. United’s experimental drug has attracted significant investment from Novo Nordisk, which paid $200mn upfront for global rights outside Greater China, with phase 2 data showing nearly 20 per cent weight loss in 24 weeks. Meanwhile, Innovent’s therapy, mazdutide, is already approved and commercialised in China."}],[{"start":191.95999999999998,"text":"But the biggest threat to western pharma lies in manufacturing. Many Chinese drugmakers control the entire supply chain, unlike western peers that often outsource the production of raw ingredients or specialised components such as injection pens to third-party contractors."}],[{"start":214.49999999999997,"text":"United Laboratories is a major producer of intermediate chemical compounds. By producing both the raw materials and finished drugs, it reduces reliance on external suppliers, making it easier to cut prices while maintaining margins."}],[{"start":232.12999999999997,"text":"None of this is surprising when you consider pharmaceutical markets have always followed a family cycle of innovation, peak pricing under patent protection and eventual competition that brings those prices down. Statins, once among the most profitable drugs in history, became low-cost therapies as competition grew."}],[{"start":256.32,"text":"GLP-1 drugs are different because of the timing. The traditional sequence between innovation, mass adoption and price cuts is beginning to overlap much earlier in the lifecycle of these drugs. "}],[{"start":272.07,"text":"Estimates suggest that more than 30mn Americans could be on GLP-1 treatment by 2030, up from about 20mn on branded therapies this year, according to JPMorgan. But this does not automatically mean more profit for existing producers if prices fall faster than volumes grow — and if that volume is captured by lower-cost competitors. "}],[{"start":298.11,"text":"For patients, the broad industry shift will improve access. It is more complicated for investors. Pharma valuations are built on the assumption that breakthrough drugs generate long periods of monopoly pricing and high-margin cash flows. That shapes everything from R&D spending to sector valuations. "}],[{"start":321.59000000000003,"text":"If GLP-1 drugs set a precedent for a shorter period of peak profitability, the industry shifts from scarcity to a volume-driven model, making it harder for drugmakers to sustain an edge. Innovation in drugmaking will still matter. But it may no longer be enough on its own."}],[{"start":349.62,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776387688_4419.mp3"}