Can Trump finally make a nuclear deal with Iran?

{"text":[[{"start":8.9,"text":"Donald Trump was clear about the main stumbling block after the first round of peace talks with Iran last weekend. “The meeting went well,” he said. “Most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not.”"}],[{"start":22.4,"text":"Since launching the war, the US president has said he wants to stop the Islamic republic from ever building a nuclear weapon. Ending the conflict now turns on finding terms acceptable to Trump and the Islamic regime, which invested billions of dollars in a programme it sees as strategically vital."}],[{"start":39.95,"text":"In theory, there is a template for a deal: Iran, which has always denied seeking nuclear weapons, accepts strict limits on its nuclear activity and stringent verification in return for sanctions relief. In practice, deep mistrust and wide gaps between the two sides make this a formidable challenge."}],[{"start":59.6,"text":"“It’s not un-doable, but it’s easier not to be done than done,” said Rob Malley, a former US envoy for Iran. “Trump’s impulsiveness, his temperamental character is a real contrast to Iran leadership’s tenaciousness and its attention to every detail . . . it’s hard to reconcile them.”"}],[{"start":75.55,"text":"Will Iran give up its right to enrich uranium? "}],[{"start":79.05,"text":"Trump’s demand since he returned to the White House has been that Tehran agree to “zero-enrichment” and dismantle its programme."}],[{"start":86.64999999999999,"text":"But Iran has repeatedly rejected the condition, insisting it has a right to enrich as a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty. Tehran’s leaders are also wary of being seen to “surrender” to Trump’s pressure."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":100.05,"text":"One compromise, floated during talks in Islamabad last weekend, would be a moratorium on enrichment. The US proposed 20 years, Iran insisted on five. In theory, the US could accept Iran’s right to enrich, while the republic would agree not to, a person briefed on the talks said. "}],[{"start":118.69999999999999,"text":"There is a precedent for big gaps being bridged. During talks that led to the 2015 nuclear deal, which Tehran signed with the Obama administration and other world powers, the US initially pushed for limits on its enrichment and its stockpile of enriched uranium to last more than 20 years. Iran’s opening gambit was one or two years, Malley said. "}],[{"start":140.35,"text":"After almost two years of haggling, Iran agreed to enrich to levels no higher than 3.67 per cent purity and to cap its stockpile at 300kg for 15 years, in return for sanctions relief. Tehran complied with the deal until Trump abandoned it in 2018. "}],[{"start":157.7,"text":"Iran then responded by installing advanced centrifuges and enriching close to weapons-grade levels."}],[{"start":164.29999999999998,"text":"The republic has, however, not enriched uranium since the US bombed its main facilities last June, severely damaging the plants. "}],[{"start":173.39999999999998,"text":"But a key issue is that Trump equates any level of enrichment to nuclear weapons, said Richard Nephew, a former deputy US envoy for Iran."}],[{"start":183.34999999999997,"text":"“That’s not factually accurate, but it’s part of the reason why the compromise issue has become much more difficult on the US side,” he said. "}],[{"start":191.04999999999995,"text":"Will Iran hand over its stockpile of ‘nuclear dust’?"}],[{"start":194.79999999999995,"text":"Iran has more than 9,000kg of enriched uranium. While most of it is at low levels, arguably the most critical point of contention will be the fate of some 440kg that is a short step from weapons-grade."}],[{"start":208.99999999999994,"text":"Currently at 60 per cent purity, it is enough to produce about 10 weapons if further enriched to 90 per cent. This is a card Iran did not hold when it was negotiating the 2015 deal. "}],[{"start":220.14999999999995,"text":"Trump wants the republic to hand over the stockpile, which is believed to be buried beneath the rubble of the sites he claimed the US had “obliterated” last June."}],[{"start":229.19999999999996,"text":"These are the Natanz and Fordow enrichment plants and another facility in Isfahan."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":234.79999999999995,"text":"Giving up the fissile material — stored in powder form in large cylinders — would be a huge concession for Iran, significantly weakening its leverage if any deal broke down and removing a bargaining chip if sanctions were reimposed. "}],[{"start":250.24999999999994,"text":"Trump claims Tehran has agreed to hand over the stockpile — “nuclear dust”, as he puts it."}],[{"start":256.49999999999994,"text":"Iran denied this on Friday. “Iran’s enriched uranium is not meant to go anywhere,” the foreign ministry said."}],[{"start":262.99999999999994,"text":"Malley said he suspected Tehran was seeking ways to ensure “that whatever they give up is commensurate in some way with what they get in return — not just in terms of value, but also reversibility”. "}],[{"start":274.6499999999999,"text":"He added “that’s not unbridgeable”."}],[{"start":277.3499999999999,"text":"A regime insider said Iran could compromise by agreeing to dilute the 60 per cent enriched uranium to 3.6 per cent."}],[{"start":285.8999999999999,"text":"At talks in Geneva in February, Iran had agreed to dilute its stockpile to 3.67 per cent or lower, people briefed on the talks said — the same level agreed in 2015."}],[{"start":297.44999999999993,"text":"At the time, Omani foreign minister Badr Albusaidi, the main mediator of those talks, called this “significant progress”. But Trump chose war over diplomacy, with the US and Israel launching their conflict soon after. "}],[{"start":311.0999999999999,"text":"The US president is expected to push for a deal that he can claim is “better” than the 2015 accord Obama signed."}],[{"start":318.4999999999999,"text":"What happens to Iran’s nuclear facilities? "}],[{"start":321.89999999999986,"text":"Another point of dispute is likely to be determining what happens to Iran’s bombed nuclear sites."}],[{"start":328.9999999999999,"text":"At the prewar talks in Geneva, the US had pushed for the facilities to be decommissioned, one person briefed said. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":336.39999999999986,"text":"But the regime insider said Iran wanted to maintain its key facilities, including the enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow. “Iran hopes to reach an agreement through negotiations,” the regime insider said. “Otherwise, we need to think of new deterrents.”"}],[{"start":352.34999999999985,"text":"There will also be questions about whether Iran has hidden sites. Last year it said it had built a third, secret enrichment facility."}],[{"start":359.74999999999983,"text":"The International Atomic Energy Agency has not been able to conduct inspections since Israel’s June war against Iran, and its access had been restricted before that."}],[{"start":370.04999999999984,"text":"In the Geneva talks in February, Iran was discussing a monitoring regime that would include the IAEA as well as multinational inspectors, including the US or those representing it, people briefed on those talks said."}],[{"start":384.54999999999984,"text":"“Verification has become a much bigger problem now,” Nephew said. “Back in 2015 we had well-characterised sites . . . we knew basically what the programme was and where all the relevant nuclear material was.”"}],[{"start":397.64999999999986,"text":"“But we lost continuity of knowledge . . . That means they could — almost certainly do — have a cache of centrifuges someplace.”"}],[{"start":412.1999999999999,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776509485_5654.mp3"}