{"text":[[{"start":11.15,"text":"Former Spanish central bank governor Pablo Hernández de Cos is the most qualified candidate in a tightly contested race to succeed Christine Lagarde as European Central Bank president, according to a survey of monetary policy experts by OMFIF. "}],[{"start":25.450000000000003,"text":"The 20 experts polled by the London-based economic think-tank this month found Hernández de Cos led a list of five top contenders for the job when rating their merits in nine dimensions, including central bank experience, reputation for leadership and consensus building, crisis management ability and experience. "}],[{"start":43.300000000000004,"text":"Hernández de Cos, currently general manager of Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, was followed by Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel, former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot and outgoing French governor François Villeroy de Galhau. "}],[{"start":58.150000000000006,"text":"Hernández de Cos is generally viewed as a centrist with a slight dovish bias, while Villeroy de Galhau is seen as a centrist and Nagel and Knot are considered to be moderate hawks. "}],[{"start":70.05000000000001,"text":"The ECB president was chosen in an “opaque” process by EU governments and the outcome was hard to predict because of its political nature, OMFIF vice-chair John Orchard told the FT. It has historically been subject to last-minute behind-the-scenes horse-trading among capitals. "}],[{"start":88.4,"text":"Spain and Germany are the two largest Eurozone members to never have held the top job in the ECB’s 27-year history. But the fact that the European Commission is currently headed by a German is seen as a key obstacle for Nagel."}],[{"start":103.25,"text":"While Lagarde’s eight-year term will not expire until October 2027, a “soft lobbying process has already started among some of the contenders”, which suggests “there is a chance that the decision will be taken sooner than later”, Orchard said. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":119.95,"text":"The FT reported in February that Lagarde expected to resign early to enable outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to fill one of the EU’s most important jobs ahead of the pivotal 2027 French presidential election."}],[{"start":137.5,"text":"However, the renewed inflation risks triggered by the Iran war may interfere with that plan. “When there [are] big clouds on the horizon, the captain does not leave the ship — and this captain is not going to leave the ship because I see clouds,” Lagarde told Bloomberg TV last week. "}],[{"start":155.1,"text":"OMFIF’s survey, which polled the consultancy’s academic advisers and board members, ranked the five most commonly mentioned contenders using 1 as the highest grade and 5 as the lowest. "}],[{"start":167.25,"text":"Hernández de Cos, who took over the BIS in 2025 and ran the Bank of Spain for eight years, received an average mark of 1.77. He also came out first in an FT poll among academic and private-sector economists published earlier this year. "}],[{"start":183.35,"text":"The poll also gave high marks to Nagel (1.9), Knot (1.92) and Villeroy de Galhau (1.94) while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel came out fifth (2.57). "}],[{"start":197.85,"text":"“It is a tight race” with “a number of highly qualified contenders for the job”, said Orchard, adding that the risk of disruptions in government bond markets over the coming years could test the next ECB president’s financial markets expertise and crisis management skills."}],[{"start":213.6,"text":"In both those dimensions, Nagel received the highest marks of all five contenders. Hernández de Cos was ranked highest for his monetary economics training, his reputation for consensus building, his European credentials and his ability to win support from key member states other than his home country. "}],[{"start":230.75,"text":"In the past, frontrunners have not always been successful, and compromise candidates have emerged towards the end of the process. The late nomination of then-IMF boss Christine Lagarde in 2019 caught many observers by surprise. "}],[{"start":245.6,"text":"Last year, the FT reported that Lagarde had discussed leaving the ECB early to become chair of the World Economic Forum."}],[{"start":252.9,"text":"Data visualisation by Keith Fray"}],[{"start":266.40000000000003,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776665078_9337.mp3"}