{"text":[[{"start":7.95,"text":"Oil markets are facing more turbulence as tensions in the Middle East collide with a seasonal slowdown in demand, raising the prospect of further sharp and unpredictable swings in crude prices, the head of trading house Gunvor warned. "}],[{"start":21.2,"text":"Gary Pedersen, who took over the world’s fourth-largest independent oil trader following a management buyout in December, said markets could become even more volatile during April to June, when demand dips between winter and the summer driving season. "}],[{"start":35.5,"text":"“It is a little bit of a more challenging, softer period that we need to be careful of. Frankly, it could be very choppy,” he said in an interview with the FT, with prices potentially driven more by headlines than underlying supply and demand. "}],[{"start":48.5,"text":"The International Energy Agency has forecast that demand will drop by 1.5mn barrels a day (b/d) in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the Covid-19 pandemic. Opec, the group of oil producers, is forecasting a more modest 500,000 b/d fall. "}],[{"start":66.35,"text":"Gunvor said last week it had already generated more than $1.6bn in gross profits in the first three months of this year, matching the figure for the whole of 2025. "}],[{"start":78.5,"text":"Pedersen said the company had prepared for the Iran conflict by drawing on lessons from recent crises, when it was caught out by price rises and forced to shut down trading positions, exposing weaknesses in its risk management. "}],[{"start":91.4,"text":"“We leveraged a lot of experience from the team that was here in 2022,” he said, referring to the period after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices soaring. "}],[{"start":102.2,"text":"Gunvor reviewed all of its positions and risk exposures ahead of the war and has traded throughout the conflict, including buying significant volumes released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “We have not had any liquidity constraints whatsoever. We have been able to trade, stay liquid and focus on all the arbitrage movements.”"}],[{"start":121.95,"text":"A key part of that strategy has been a focus on moving physical oil rather than on oil derivatives. Pedersen said he wanted traders to minimise what he called “stress risk”, or the danger of being caught out by extreme and unpredictable price moves. “Stress is what turns the lights out, so we want to make sure we’re constantly measuring stress risk every day,” he said. "}],[{"start":142.4,"text":"While oil futures have regularly sold off sharply — which Pedersen attributed in part to a “masterclass” in political messaging from US President Donald Trump — he said physical crude remained tight as buyers sought to replace disrupted supplies from the Gulf."}],[{"start":157.55,"text":"Gunvor is emerging from a turbulent period, in which tensions with Washington — which described the group as a “Kremlin puppet” and blocked it from acquiring overseas assets from Russia’s Lukoil — triggered a crisis that culminated in the departure of its owner Torbjörn Törnqvist and the subsequent management buyout."}],[{"start":174.8,"text":"The US, where the company now has more than $4bn of assets, is the main focus and accounts for roughly a third of Gunvor’s trading. “We are focused on how we are going to grow our US footprint. We still very much like [US] gas and crude,” said Pedersen. "}],[{"start":190.95000000000002,"text":"He also signalled interest in acquiring refining assets, arguing that years of capacity closures in western markets had created an opportunity. “With demand growth coming, refining looks very positive,” he said."}],[{"start":204.00000000000003,"text":"Pedersen is seeking to reshape Gunvor into a more data-driven trading organisation, drawing on his experience at hedge fund Millennium. “I come from a much more analytical background,” he said. “I like to measure as many things as we can.”"}],[{"start":218.85000000000002,"text":"The buyout left Pedersen and his partners owing several billion dollars to Törnqvist, given his 86 per cent stake in the $6bn company at the time of his exit, to be repaid over the next decade. "}],[{"start":230.85000000000002,"text":"Executives insisted the arrangement left the former owner with no influence over the company. “There is zero provision in any agreements which would allow him to step in,” said Gia Mai, Gunvor’s chief operating officer. "}],[{"start":243.35000000000002,"text":"“Obviously, if we had the ability to have paid him out in full from day one, we would have done,” said Jeff Webster, the company’s chief financial officer. “But he set it up in a way that it cuts him out of the business entirely, but also gives us the best chance to repay what is owed in a way the company can prosper at the same time,” he added. "}],[{"start":263.25,"text":"Pedersen said his priority was to ensure Gunvor performed consistently across market cycles. “We want to make money in good and bad markets,” he said."}],[{"start":280.1,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776680435_8200.mp3"}