Russia could use drone edge to threaten Baltics, warns Latvian general

{"text":[[{"start":9.55,"text":"Russia has gained an edge in drone warfare over Nato countries and could seek to exploit a “window of opportunity” by the end of 2028 to invade the Baltic states, Latvia’s military chief has warned. "}],[{"start":21.6,"text":"General Kaspars Pudāns, commander of Latvia’s armed forces, told the FT that Moscow’s advantage lay not in having better technology but in its ability to manufacture drones at scale and adapt them rapidly in wartime."}],[{"start":35.900000000000006,"text":"“Their advantage is the scalability of drones,” Pudāns said. “They are able to quickly replenish the stocks, to have big numbers on a big scale.”"}],[{"start":44.85000000000001,"text":"Any direct conflict between Moscow and Nato may begin in the three Baltic states, which are seen as hard to defend given Russia’s proximity and the alliance’s slow pace in bolstering its eastern flank defences. "}],[{"start":58.00000000000001,"text":"The Latvian general warned that Russia could exploit the slow pace of European rearmament, with most army modernisation programmes not expected to take effect until around 2029. "}],[{"start":68.5,"text":"“If I were in the Kremlin, I would say if we do something, then we should do it by the end of 2028,” Pudāns said."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":76.65,"text":"Nato allies last year agreed to raise defence-related spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035. The target comprises 3.5 per cent of GDP for core military spending and 1.5 per cent for infrastructure that could be used in wartime, including bridges and railways."}],[{"start":92.55000000000001,"text":"Other officials in the region have started to worry about the possibility of Russia attacking earlier than previously thought, and testing the strength of the Baltic states or other frontline Nato countries."}],[{"start":103.85000000000001,"text":"“If you’re [Russia’s Vladimir] Putin, there could be a couple of reasons to try something earlier. One is that [US President Donald] Trump is only in office for another two years, and you don’t know if what comes after him is as constructive. "}],[{"start":117.2,"text":"“The second is that all European countries are ramping up defence spending so it may make sense to move before then,” said a senior defence official of a Nato frontline state."}],[{"start":127.55,"text":"A Russian invasion would use much the same tactics and technology as the Ukraine war."}],[{"start":132.95,"text":"Both Russian and Ukrainian forces use thousands of drones a day, ranging from cheap strike drones to long-range autonomous systems capable of hitting targets hundreds of miles behind the front line."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":146,"text":"While Ukraine has proved adept at drone warfare, Nato forces have far fewer drones and less experience using them on the battlefield. In a British Army exercise which gamed out a war in Estonia last month, commanders assumed they would run out of drones in less than a week."}],[{"start":163.55,"text":"Pudāns said Russia’s forces had gained a critical advantage from continuous battlefield experimentation in Ukraine, allowing them to test and refine new technologies."}],[{"start":173.55,"text":"“Both Ukraine and Russia have a different sense of urgency,” he said. “They are innovating and developing new solutions faster and testing them on the battlefield.”"}],[{"start":183.85000000000002,"text":"While some western military leaders are confident that they will not wind up in a protracted static war of attrition like the Ukraine campaign, Pudāns said: “I don't think either Russia or Ukraine started out wanting to fight like this.” "}],[{"start":196.8,"text":"His scepticism is echoed by other western military leaders. In a lecture earlier this month at the Royal United Services Institute in London, General Christopher Donahue, commander of the US Army in Europe and Africa, contrasted a future war with recent wars in Iraq in which the US spent months massing forces beforehand and used expensive precision weapons."}],[{"start":219.5,"text":"“In today’s environment, as we’re seeing it play out, that would not work,” Donahue said. “We will not be able to match an adversary using this new form of mass unless we evolve.”"}],[{"start":230.55,"text":"While Nato remains conventionally stronger vis-à-vis Russia, particularly in air power, Pudāns warned that the alliance was still struggling to raise defence spending, build industrial capacity and deploy new capabilities along its eastern flank."}],[{"start":246.3,"text":"European officials have long been worried about Latvia’s vulnerability with it having a high level of Russian speakers in the east of the country. Each of the three states hosts Nato multinational brigades. Latvia’s is led by Canada compared with Germany for neighbouring Lithuania and the UK for Estonia. "}],[{"start":265,"text":"Fears of vulnerability were heightened when Latvia’s government collapsed over its inability to stop stray Ukrainian drones from crashing into an oil facility in its eastern regions. A new four-party coalition in Riga started on Thursday ahead of parliamentary elections in October."}],[{"start":283.25,"text":"Pudāns stressed that Russia at present lacked the forces for a large-scale invasion while fighting in Ukraine, but said Moscow could quickly pose a greater threat if the war there ended."}],[{"start":294.65,"text":"He distinguished between the possibility of immediate hybrid attacks — including sabotage, cyber attacks or disinformation campaigns — and a future conventional military assault."}],[{"start":306.4,"text":"“We live with the assumption that aggression in some form could happen already tonight,” he said."}],[{"start":320.79999999999995,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780556252_3392.mp3"}