00:00
尊敬的用户您好，这是来自FT中文网的温馨提示：如您对更多FT中文网的内容感兴趣，请在苹果应用商店或谷歌应用市场搜索“FT中文网”，下载FT中文网的官方应用。
{"text":[[{"start":9.2,"text":"Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates by the end of 2026 to tame the burst of inflation sparked by Donald Trump’s Iran war, leading economists said as he prepares for his first meeting as chair. "}],[{"start":22.75,"text":"Warsh will be confronted with inflation running close to a three-year high of 3.8 per cent — nearly double the central bank’s target — as the Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting later on Tuesday. "}],[{"start":35.4,"text":"The jolt higher in prices, prompted by a sharp rise in fuel costs, led a small majority of the 47 academic economists polled for the FT by the University of Chicago’s Clark Center for Financial Markets to wager that the Fed will need to raise rates by at least a quarter point by year-end."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":53.45,"text":"The figure compares with more than 60 per cent who had anticipated rates would end the year lower when the poll was last conducted in early March, just weeks into the war."}],[{"start":63.95,"text":"The poll was open from Friday until Monday morning, coinciding with the announcement of a deal between Washington and Tehran. The pact, which is expected to be signed on Friday, would allow flows to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the global energy crunch. "}],[{"start":79.7,"text":"Hopes that the deal will soon be agreed sparked a drop in oil prices on Monday. Analysts expect gasoline prices at the pump, a big driver of inflation in the US, will also begin coming down markedly. "}],[{"start":91.85000000000001,"text":"But some economists say that, even if the deal is concluded, the knock-on effects could leave inflation elevated for some time. "}],[{"start":99.65,"text":"“We don’t know what’s in this deal. And a lot of the inflation that we’re forecasting here is already in train,” said Stephen Cecchetti at Brandeis University. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":108.25,"text":"Traders are also still betting that a rate rise before the end of this year is more likely than not, despite the deal at the weekend, according to trading in federal funds futures. "}],[{"start":118.1,"text":"Warsh takes the reins of the FOMC from Jay Powell at a time when divisions among US rate setters are rife. "}],[{"start":125.25,"text":"While the Fed will almost certainly keep borrowing costs on hold this week, a growing number of rate setters have said they can already envision a scenario where they would need to raise borrowing costs amid signs that the US labour market is stabilising and growth remains on track. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":140.05,"text":"Joe Lavorgna, a former economic adviser to US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, said he did not expect Warsh’s views on monetary policy to be influenced by Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates. "}],[{"start":152.05,"text":"“The notion that he’s not going to raise rates because he’s promised the president [rate cuts] doesn’t make any sense,” Lavorgna, now chief economist for the Americas at Japanese lender SMBC, said. “What he does on rates is going to be a function of the economy.”"}],[{"start":167.75,"text":"Allan Timmermann, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, said that although raising rates “would be the prudent thing to do”, the FOMC might want to buy Warsh some time. "}],[{"start":179.65,"text":"“As a courtesy — you might call it a honeymoon effect to the new chair — they’re not going to push as hard,” Timmermann said. "}],[{"start":186.45000000000002,"text":"Warsh repeatedly called for “regime change” at the central bank — saying he wanted to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and revamp the way officials talk to markets and the public — ahead of his appointment. "}],[{"start":197.3,"text":"Lavorgna, who was not a respondent in the poll, said that while Warsh was “going to shake the consensus” at the central bank, the Fed chair would bide his time at an institution renowned for its cautious approach to change. “He’s too much of a diplomat, too much of a politician.”"}],[{"start":214.3,"text":"Many of the respondents to the FT-Booth Survey said the new Fed chair could also have to grapple with a sharp fall in equity prices if the sharp rally in tech shares that has driven Wall Street to record highs unwinds. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":228.60000000000002,"text":"Almost three-quarters warned that the chance of a 20 per cent decline in the S&P 500 was more likely than usual at some point over the next year. "}],[{"start":238.20000000000002,"text":"“The main concern is how narrow the elevated price rally has been — how much it’s tied up with semiconductors,” said Timmermann."}],[{"start":246.20000000000002,"text":"“There are a wide variety of measures that say that risk assets now are about as crazy as we’ve seen them in the last 50 years — in a situation where sovereign debt with government borrowing is much, much higher as a share of GDP than it was when we faced the great financial crisis,” said Robert Barbera of Johns Hopkins University. "}],[{"start":265.45000000000005,"text":"“[Yet] we continue to operate as if the excess to worry about is the price of bananas, not SpaceX.”"}],[{"start":279.4000000000001,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1781593741_4832.mp3"}