Oil sinks below $80 as traders bet Strait of Hormuz flows will return

{"text":[[{"start":10.25,"text":"Oil prices fell below $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since early March amid growing confidence that the deal struck between the US and Iran will restore the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz."}],[{"start":23,"text":"Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled 5.1 per cent lower at $78.96 a barrel, its lowest level since March 2. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, fell 5.8 per cent to $76.05 a barrel."}],[{"start":40.5,"text":"Oil prices have tumbled this week after Washington and Tehran agreed late on Sunday to extend their ceasefire and reopen the strait, which in effect has been shut since late February, after several weeks of fraught negotiations brokered by Qatar and Pakistan."}],[{"start":54.55,"text":"Middle Eastern oil prices have slumped since the peace deal was announced. Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude fell as low as $72.74 a barrel on Tuesday, just 49 cents higher than before the war began, after surging to as much as $160.50 in March. Prices of Dubai and Oman oil also fell this week."}],[{"start":76.05,"text":"“Optimism surrounding a gradual recovery in Gulf exports has reduced the geopolitical risk premium built up during the conflict,” said Soojin Kim, an analyst at MUFG. “The prospect of improved energy flows and lower oil prices has helped ease inflation concerns, although uncertainty remains over how quickly shipping and commodity exports can normalise.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":97.44999999999999,"text":"Two Iranian tankers, the Hero II and the Diona, sailed out of the Gulf of Oman and passed the nominal US blockade line on Tuesday — the first sign of Iranian oil beginning to move unchallenged by the US military since the restrictions began. Neither was signalling its final destination but both appeared to be heading south-east around India. "}],[{"start":118.99999999999999,"text":"The price of crude surged after the US and Israel launched their assault on Iran on February 28, sending the price from $72 a barrel on the eve of the conflict to as high as $126 in April. Hopes of a peace deal have repeatedly been dashed in recent weeks, causing dramatic fluctuations in the price of oil."}],[{"start":138.75,"text":"Michael Haigh, global head of commodities research at Société Générale, said the market was in a “sell now, ask questions later” mindset."}],[{"start":147.3,"text":"“We don’t have absolute clarity on how this will turn out, but the base case appears to be one of a narrow deal rather than a stalemate,” he said."}],[{"start":155.35000000000002,"text":"The falling oil price came despite a warning earlier in the day from Jotaro Tamura, chief executive of shipping group Mitsui OSK Lines, that it would take weeks for many shipowners to restart passages of the strait as they waited to see if the deal was “material”. Oil traders have consistently warned that it could take as many as three months for ship traffic through the crucial chokepoint to return to prewar levels. "}],[{"start":181.35000000000002,"text":"“Markets clearly welcome the latest development, although how quickly traffic through the strait can normalise remains to be seen,” said analysts at UBS. “Given worries about sea mines in the waterway, markets will look for clearer evidence that shipping companies and insurers have sufficient confidence to traverse the strait.”"}],[{"start":200.40000000000003,"text":"Goldman Sachs on Monday trimmed its oil price forecast following the US-Iran deal, the signing of which is scheduled for Friday. The bank now expects Brent to trade at $80 a barrel in the final quarter of 2026, $10 lower than its previous prediction. "}],[{"start":215.80000000000004,"text":"“While full details on the agreement are unclear, we now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalise to prewar levels by the end of July (vs end of August previously),” said analysts at Goldman. "}],[{"start":227.75000000000003,"text":"Oil markets were likely to stay tight through the summer, said Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. “From [the fourth quarter of this year] onwards, we see Brent anchored around $80 a barrel,” they said."}],[{"start":247.20000000000002,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1781659984_2283.mp3"}