{"text":[[{"start":5.55,"text":"The “Save America Act” sounds hard to oppose. But, much to US President Donald Trump’s frustration, the legislation is stuck in Congress. The bill’s opponents see it as an effort to rig the electoral system by getting Democrats off the voter rolls ahead of this year’s crucial midterm elections. "}],[{"start":23.85,"text":"Attempting to tilt election law in your favour — and to entrench yourself in power by fair means and foul — are classic tactics of strongman leaders. The good news is that it doesn’t always work. In Brazil, Hungary and the Philippines, recent efforts by strongman leaders to take decisive control of their countries’ institutions failed — leading Jair Bolsonaro, Viktor Orbán and Rodrigo Duterte to lose power."}],[{"start":49.5,"text":"When I wrote a book called The Age of the Strongman a few years ago, I had to wrestle with the question of whether it is fair to lump together leaders such as Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin — who operate in genuinely authoritarian systems — with those like Trump or Orbán who were legitimately elected."}],[{"start":68.9,"text":"My conclusion was that strongman leaders — whatever the system they operate in — frequently share instincts and methods. They encourage a cult of personality, they centralise power around themselves and they fight against independent institutions they cannot control — whether that is the courts, the media or an electoral commission. Strongmen also often abolish constitutional term limits so as to extend their stay in power. Xi, Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have all done this — while Trump’s superfans keep speculation alive about an unconstitutional third term for him. Strongmen are also almost invariably male, nationalist and populist. Their personalised leadership encourages cronyism and the corruption that flows from it. All this, as they say in car showrooms, “comes as standard”."}],[{"start":117.45,"text":"The difference lies not in the instincts of the strongmen but in the robustness of the systems they operate in. If a strongman ruler is already governing in a largely authoritarian system — like Xi or Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman — they are almost impossible to get rid of. It might take a coup or an unusually effective ruling-class conspiracy to make a change at the top."}],[{"start":141,"text":"But if the strongman has come to power in a system that still has free elections — as well as courts that retain some independence and a military that will not follow unconstitutional orders — then it is still possible to evict them from office."}],[{"start":154.85,"text":"You can expect a strongman leader to try a familiar array of tricks to tilt a democratic system in their favour. Rich cronies can buy up the media. Judges and generals who show too much independence can be replaced. Electoral boundaries can be redrawn. The constitution can be rewritten or ignored. The end result is often an election that is free but not fair, because the odds are stacked against the opposition. Even so, if a strongman is sufficiently unpopular he can still lose the vote."}],[{"start":186.45,"text":"That is what happened to Hungary’s Orbán. Despite massively slanted television coverage that ignored his opponent, Péter Magyar, he went down to a crushing defeat in April’s elections. "}],[{"start":199.14999999999998,"text":"When Bolsonaro narrowly lost the Brazilian presidential election in October 2022, he refused to accept the result and put pressure on military leaders to launch a coup. When they refused, he incited his followers to storm Congress, the supreme court and the presidential palace. But Brazil’s legal system was robust enough to get him tried and sent to prison for many years. His best hope now lies in his son, Flávio, winning the presidency in October."}],[{"start":230.04999999999998,"text":"As president of the Philippines from 2016 to 2022, Rodrigo Duterte had political opponents arrested and imprisoned, forced out the head of the supreme court and targeted the independent media. But he was unable to push through a change to the constitution that would have allowed him to run for a second term. After losing power, he was extradited to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, where he is awaiting trial for crimes against humanity."}],[{"start":258.84999999999997,"text":"In Israel, meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu has made strenuous efforts to curb the independence of the courts and to marginalise critical media. But he has been unable to stop his trial on corruption charges and may well lose power in elections later this year."}],[{"start":274.95,"text":"But not all democratic systems have proved sufficiently robust to resist a determined would-be autocrat. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in power in Turkey since 2003 — first as prime minister and now as president. His political opponents have made determined efforts to defeat him by working within the system. But Erdoğan’s autocratic methods may have given him an impregnable grip on power. "}],[{"start":301.45,"text":"Ekrem İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, was widely regarded as the most credible electoral threat. But he is currently in prison, charged with everything from corruption to terrorism and espionage. His fate mirrors that of charismatic opposition leader Selahattin Demirtaş, who has been in prison for almost a decade — despite repeated calls for his release by the European Court of Human Rights."}],[{"start":328.5,"text":"Trump is a confirmed admirer of Erdoğan, and recently called him a “great leader”. But — fortunately for the US — America’s courts, media and electoral system currently look more robust than those of Turkey. A healthy country needs strong institutions, not a strongman leader."}],[{"start":354.65,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1782777540_1007.mp3"}