{"text":[[{"start":8.3,"text":"Analysts at Citi expect Brent crude to fall as low as $60 a barrel by the end of the year as they foresee the US-Iran truce holding."}],[{"start":17.15,"text":"The bank’s analysts said in a Friday note that despite temporary flare-ups, both sides have good reason to uphold the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June."}],[{"start":26.9,"text":"“We expect the MOU to hold, not because trust has suddenly emerged, but because the incentives to break are poor for both sides,” they wrote."}],[{"start":35.55,"text":"“The US and Iran both appear to be displaying genuine conflict fatigue, while the one meaningful source of potential disruption, that is Lebanon, is increasingly constrained by a broader US preference for de-escalation.” "}],[{"start":49.4,"text":"The note recommends traders sell into oil price rallies over the summer and forecasts that Brent prices will be between $60 and $65 a barrel by the end of the year."}],[{"start":59.55,"text":"In mid-June Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for Brent to $80 a barrel. In recent notes its commodities team highlighted a swift resumption of oil flows from the Gulf and said they could return to prewar levels by early July."}],[{"start":75.5,"text":"The Goldman analysts, however, remain more cautious than their Citi counterparts about the strength of Iran’s incentives to uphold the truce."}],[{"start":85.25,"text":"Shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have increased to 7mn barrels a day of crude oil, compared with 15mn before the conflict, according to Citi analysts."}],[{"start":94.9,"text":"They say shipping volumes through the strait are likely to be higher than official data suggests because many vessels have their transponders disabled for security reasons."}],[{"start":103.7,"text":"On Friday Brent prices edged up 0.9 per cent to about $72.50 a barrel. January contracts for Brent are trading at about $73, meaning the Citi analysts expect prices to fall more than the market does."}],[{"start":117.95,"text":"Prices for Brent have largely traded below $80 a barrel since the US and Iran agreed to cease hostilities."}],[{"start":125.15,"text":"Prices peaked above $126 a barrel on April 30, the highest level since 2022."}],[{"start":140.95,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1783075868_9150.mp3"}