{"text":[[{"start":13.8,"text":"Investors will gain insight into the thinking of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday with the release of minutes from the June meeting of the US central bank’s policymakers — the first to be chaired by Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh."}],[{"start":26.9,"text":"During his public debut, the new chair notably slashed the length of the Fed’s policy statement and declined to contribute to the FOMC’s interest rate forecasts. His tight-lipped approach marks a sharp contrast with Jay Powell, Trump’s previous appointment to the post, who favoured ample forward guidance to telegraph policy paths and insulate markets from surprises."}],[{"start":47.65,"text":"Warsh’s brevity means the June minutes carry more weight than usual, offering a valuable view of the contrasting positions among Fed officials, said George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas. "}],[{"start":61.65,"text":"“The minutes will get more important because, up until now, we don’t know what they were thinking,” Goncalves said. “It will be revealing to see how they debate and what they focus on.”"}],[{"start":72.4,"text":"Some investors have raised questions about Warsh’s hands-off approach, with many hoping for a return to greater transparency, he added."}],[{"start":80.65,"text":"“A lot of market participants are not accustomed to less information, and there’s still a healthy level of scepticism over how long [the Fed] can keep acting this way,” Goncalves said. “Now we have to read between the lines.” Michelle Chan"}],[{"start":93.5,"text":"Will Merz’s reforms revive German manufacturing?"}],[{"start":97.2,"text":"A flurry of data for Germany’s export-dependent manufacturing sector next week is likely to offer a fresh reminder of the challenges it faces, including fierce competition from Chinese rivals, high energy prices and US tariffs. "}],[{"start":110.65,"text":"Germany’s economy has stagnated since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. In the traditionally strong manufacturing sector, the situation is even worse: industrial production peaked in late 2017 and today is 9 per cent less than it was a decade ago, according to Bundesbank data. "}],[{"start":129.25,"text":"Industrial orders data, a key bellwether for the backbone of Germany’s economy, has been extraordinarily noisy in recent months. Orders shot up in March to a level last seen in the first half of 2022, as companies rushed to stockpile supplies in anticipation of disruptions from the Iran war. One month later, they fell back sharply. "}],[{"start":150.25,"text":"“Any rebound in industrial orders after a very weak April should be muted,” said Carsten Brzeski, ING’s global head of macro. Activity in May will have been muted by the large number of public holidays in the month and by the Iran war, he said."}],[{"start":165,"text":"“The first wave of stockpiling is long over,” Brzeski added. He expects that new data for trade and industrial production, also to be published next week, will be similarly lacklustre. “After a marginal rebound in April, industrial production looks set for a disappointment on the back of potential supply-chain frictions and public holidays,” he said."}],[{"start":185.05,"text":"Economists such as Holger Schmieding at Berenberg are confident that Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s reforms can lift Germany’s potential growth rate over time. But investors will need to muster a lot of patience before this shows up in hard data. "}],[{"start":199.20000000000002,"text":"“The measures are unlikely to have much immediate impact on the economy. In the short term, the main channel is confidence,” said Joachim Schallmayer, head of capital markets and strategy at Germany’s DekaBank. Olaf Storbeck"}],[{"start":212.95000000000002,"text":"Will China flirt with deflation once again? "}],[{"start":216.25000000000003,"text":"China publishes June retail and wholesale inflation data on Thursday, the first readings since the drop in oil prices after the US and Iran reached an uneasy truce last month. "}],[{"start":227.05000000000004,"text":"With the Iran war previously sending global energy prices higher, China’s consumer and producer price indices have broken out of years-long slumps, caused in part by chronically weak domestic demand on the back of a real estate bust that crushed consumer sentiment."}],[{"start":243.00000000000003,"text":"Since February, CPI inflation has held above an annual rate of 1 per cent for the first time since early 2023. In March, PPI inflation rose into positive territory for the first time in more than 40 months. "}],[{"start":256.5,"text":"But the rise in Chinese inflation does not reflect a resurgence in domestic demand."}],[{"start":262.35,"text":"Recent economic data has been weak. May retail sales growth turned negative for the first time since the pandemic, while fixed-asset investment slipped to its lowest levels since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. "}],[{"start":274.8,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect the CPI to rise at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent, with the PPI rising 4.1 per cent. "}],[{"start":283.8,"text":"Citi economists say the June CPI rate will be 1.1 per cent, down from 1.2 per cent in May, led by falling energy prices. "}],[{"start":292.40000000000003,"text":"“We continue to see only piecemeal consumer support, with July as the earliest window” for any cut in the central bank’s benchmark interest rate, the Citi economists wrote in a note. "}],[{"start":304.6,"text":"They see weak domestic demand as evidence of China’s increasingly K-shaped economy, in which sectors exposed to AI and exports perform well even as domestic supply outstrips demand and fuels both deflation and strong exports. William Sandlund"}],[{"start":329.75,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1783253889_2165.mp3"}