Top Federal Reserve official backs Kevin Warsh’s rethink of forward guidance - FT中文网
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Top Federal Reserve official backs Kevin Warsh’s rethink of forward guidance

Christopher Waller sides with central bank’s new chair in call for revamping communication to market
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{"text":[[{"start":8.45,"text":"A top Federal Reserve official has joined Kevin Warsh in calling for a revamp of the way the US central bank communicates with investors."}],[{"start":17.299999999999997,"text":"Fed governor Christopher Waller warned that rate-setters’ commitments to keep borrowing costs on hold during the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to the worst wave of inflation for a generation."}],[{"start":27.449999999999996,"text":"So-called forward guidance — where central bankers commit to future actions in a bid to exert more control over longer-term borrowing costs — had “tied the hands” of US rate-setters over the course of 2020 and 2021, Waller said, leading to “unnecessary” delays in raising interest rates to stave off a surge in prices."}],[{"start":48.25,"text":"The Fed governor has previously questioned whether the US central bank’s post-pandemic guidance gave rate setters enough flexibility."}],[{"start":56.1,"text":"The remarks on Monday from Waller, one of the most influential members of the Fed’s board of governors, come after the US central bank’s new chair, Warsh, last month announced plans to revamp its communications strategy. Warsh, who took over from Jay Powell in May, has in the past claimed that forward guidance has “compounded” the Fed’s policy errors."}],[{"start":77.15,"text":"Inflation rose above 7 per cent in 2022 — more than triple the Fed’s 2 per cent goal — as supply chain snags combined with loose fiscal and monetary policy to produce the most serious bout of price pressures since the 1980s."}],[{"start":91.7,"text":"Waller said in prepared remarks in Rome on Monday that the Fed’s commitment to keep interest rates on hold at close to zero “didn’t change” even as inflation rose quickly above 2 per cent and unemployment was rapidly falling. "}],[{"start":104.75,"text":"Warsh announced in June that he had set up a task force to reassess the way the US central bank communicated its policy decisions to markets and the public. The results are set to be made public before the end of 2026."}],[{"start":117.5,"text":"At his first meeting in charge, the new chair avoided submitting a forecast to the Federal Open Market Committee’s so-called dot-plot projections, which investors use to inform their views on the likely direction of interest rates."}],[{"start":131.9,"text":"The FOMC also dropped a longstanding form of forward guidance from its post-meeting statement, which hinted that the next move in interest rates would be down."}],[{"start":141.1,"text":"Warsh has also suggested that the Fed will offer less guidance not only on the future direction of interest rates, but on how it will respond to current economic conditions. Investors have warned that stance could stoke volatility in financial markets."}],[{"start":156.1,"text":"Waller said on Monday that the Fed needed to offer some form of guidance on how it intends to respond to economic conditions, arguing that doing so limits uncertainty and leads to better outcomes for markets and the public."}],[{"start":169.54999999999998,"text":"He added that forward guidance had, at times, helped “speed up” the transmission of the central bank’s policy stance."}],[{"start":177.6,"text":"When the Fed eventually dropped its commitment to keep borrowing costs on hold in September 2021 and signalled it would raise rates, investors immediately responded by raising the US government’s two-year borrowing costs."}],[{"start":197.5,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1783395696_2423.mp3"}

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