Quantum is exciting, but watch out for the Schrödinger’s cat bounce

{"text":[[{"start":4.5,"text":"Quantum computing is weird. It exploits the spooky physics of subatomic particles, which take up multiple positions at once and determine each other’s behaviour across great distances. It demands that investors get comfortable tossing around words like superposition, entanglement and coherence. It also involves pricing in some very odd, but very big risks."}],[{"start":27.9,"text":"One of those is the threat to traditional cryptography. Modern encryption relies on fiendish maths involving large prime numbers or elliptical curves. It produces locks that are easy to create but horribly difficult to unpick. Quantum computers can, in theory, crack these codes with ease. "}],[{"start":46.15,"text":"This leaves a world of data at risk — not just bank accounts, health records and state secrets, but layer upon layer of operating systems and automated processes deep inside companies’ innermost structures. Some of these, in robotics, say, are legacy systems that cannot be updated and are hard to replace. The millennium bug, by comparison, was child’s play."}],[{"start":68.8,"text":"Surely, business leaders are scrambling to get ready for this? Apparently not. Consultants at Bain say just one in 10 of the companies they surveyed in North America and Europe last year has a funded plan in place to deal with quantum-related threats. "}],[{"start":84.39999999999999,"text":"It might be because quantum has, for decades, been on the “think about it later” pile. But early-stage quantum computing is in use, and some businesses are all over it. Procter & Gamble and software company SAS used quantum and classical computers together to solve an ingredient-storage problem with more possible solutions than atoms in the universe. It took 12 minutes; classical computers alone would have taken six hours."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":112.89999999999999,"text":"Granted, the “fault tolerant” computer — one that is acceptably error-free — is still some time away. In P&G’s case, a quantum-only experiment solved the puzzle in two minutes but with unreliable results. But getting there might be quicker than once thought. IBM reckons the first fault-tolerant machines will be with us by 2030. Google thinks it could be 2029. "}],[{"start":135.5,"text":"Some governments and organisations are preparing for what is becoming known as Q-Day. In the US, the National Institute of Standards and Technology is developing quantum-safe algorithms. Apple says it has quantum-secure cryptography in a range of its systems, though they work only when they connect to supporting servers. Alphabet’s Google is rolling out “post-quantum cryptography” for internal operations and products."}],[{"start":159.15,"text":"But just as quantum abounds with weird principles, so does corporate finance. Investors and executives are great at ascribing value to distant, future profit opportunities — like putting colonies on Mars, or inventing omniscient AI. They often fall woefully short in pricing the risk of uncertain, unprecedented mishaps. Excitement over what quantum computing can do should come with healthy fear for what it might destroy."}],[{"start":191.8,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1783835746_6434.mp3"}