Iran bets Trump will blink first

{"text":[[{"start":8.35,"text":"After a week of escalating clashes with the US, Iran has taken a high-stakes gamble by playing what it believes is its key card: announcing it had closed the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to pressure President Donald Trump to bend to its will and allow it to retain control over the vital waterway."}],[{"start":27.450000000000003,"text":"At the same time, it has launched its biggest wave of missiles and drones in weeks at US-aligned Arab states, targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Oman."}],[{"start":38.85,"text":"Its belligerent response poses the most severe test yet of the fragile April 8 ceasefire. It also lays bare Iran’s anger at US attempts to weaken its influence over the strait, as well as the hawkish mindset that has taken hold in Tehran after two US-Israeli wars in a year."}],[{"start":56.95,"text":"“They are gambling. Their aim is self-preservation and preventing the erosion of their perceived influence. They feel they have to do this to survive,” said Sanam Vakil, Middle East director at Chatham House. "}],[{"start":69.3,"text":"“They are still calculating that Trump is risk-averse and that they can absorb the ‘new normal’ — low-level conflict — and wear the US down. But this is a quagmire.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":80.8,"text":"The risk, however, is that the Islamic republic — defiant and convinced it has the advantage — overplays its hand and the escalating exchanges plunge the region back into all-out conflict."}],[{"start":94.14999999999999,"text":"After Iranian forces attacked a container ship in the strait on Saturday, the US military said it struck about 140 targets in the Islamic republic, in the third wave of US attacks on Iran this week following multiple Iranian assaults on ships."}],[{"start":109.14999999999999,"text":"The US then launched further waves of strikes against Iran on Sunday and insisted that the Strait of Hormuz remains open."}],[{"start":117.05,"text":"Disputes over passage through the strait, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, are at the root of the most recent flare-up."}],[{"start":126.8,"text":"Under a memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran on June 17, the two sides agreed to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the strait."}],[{"start":137.05,"text":"The US lifted its blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran was supposed to allow the gradual reopening of the strait without charging ships fees. Iran was also expected to clear mines in the strait, with the hope that by the 30th day of the ceasefire extension — July 17 — shipping would return to prewar levels."}],[{"start":155.5,"text":"That was the main priority for Trump, who has faced widespread criticism from US hawks for agreeing to a deal that promised to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, as he sought to ease a global energy crisis ahead of November’s midterm elections."}],[{"start":169.9,"text":"More than 570 vessels have passed through the strait since the MoU, almost three-quarters of them exiting the Gulf, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence."}],[{"start":179.70000000000002,"text":"But the narrow waterway has remained a flashpoint as Iran has sought to preserve its grip on it — its main source of leverage with the US."}],[{"start":188.85000000000002,"text":"Tehran has been angered by the Trump administration’s decision to encourage vessels to transit near Oman’s coast, through its territorial waters. The so-called southern route has enabled US warplanes to provide air cover to ships using the strait."}],[{"start":203.40000000000003,"text":"Iran, however, wants vessels to pass through its waters, and has repeatedly attacked ships it says are taking “unauthorised routes”."}],[{"start":210.75000000000003,"text":"Trump had warned on Wednesday that the ceasefire was over and described Iran’s leaders as “scum”. He has also revoked a waiver that allowed Iran to export oil."}],[{"start":221.75000000000003,"text":"On Saturday, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Muscat for talks on the strait with his Omani counterpart and Qatari mediators, who had co-ordinated with American officials. The negotiations followed US efforts to pressure Iran to fully open the strait and publicly pledge not to attack ships."}],[{"start":240.45000000000002,"text":"But the talks failed to secure any tangible concessions from Iran before Washington’s deadline, a person briefed on the talks said."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":248.45000000000002,"text":"Iranian forces then targeted a cargo ship, triggering a round of tit-for-tat strikes."}],[{"start":253.75000000000003,"text":"Tehran responded to the US strikes by launching missiles and drones at US-aligned Arab states, including Qatar and Oman. Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday that the strait was “closed until further notice and until the end of US interference in the region, and no vessel would be permitted to transit”."}],[{"start":273.75,"text":"Trump claimed on Sunday that Tehran had “agreed to a deal” the previous day. "}],[{"start":278.7,"text":"“They gave up everything. And then after that, they left the room. And then within an hour, they launched a drone and a ship. I said, ‘you people are sick’,” he told NBC News."}],[{"start":289.55,"text":"Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, wrote in a post on X on Sunday: “The era of one-sided deals is OVER. We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking.”"}],[{"start":303.35,"text":"Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran’s new supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said the strait — which Tehran had previously threatened to close but had not shut before the war — “functions as a strategic deterrent” for the republic."}],[{"start":317.8,"text":"“Iran, relying on its defensive capabilities and national strength, will safeguard the country’s interests and security,” he was quoted as saying in Iranian media."}],[{"start":327.35,"text":"The Joint Maritime Information Center, run by a multinational coalition of naval forces, said that despite Iran’s claim to have closed the strait, the southern route remained open."}],[{"start":338.1,"text":"It added: “US forces are prepared to maintain freedom of navigation and safeguard lawful commerce in accordance with international law.” But it warned that the threat level in the waterway was “severe”."}],[{"start":350.1,"text":"The person briefed on the matter said no new round of talks was scheduled. "}],[{"start":354.95000000000005,"text":"After signing the MoU last month, the warring parties were supposed to hold negotiations on a final settlement, including a nuclear deal."}],[{"start":363.75000000000006,"text":"They held a first round of high-level talks in Switzerland on June 21, with US vice-president JD Vance leading the American team and Ghalibaf heading the Iranian negotiators."}],[{"start":376.20000000000005,"text":"Lower-level talks followed in Doha, dominated by the dispute over the strait. Those negotiations were paused as Iran held the days-long funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, its late supreme leader, who was killed in air strikes on the first day of the US-Israeli war."}],[{"start":394.05000000000007,"text":"The tit-for-tat attacks over the strait continued, while Iran used the funeral to project power and defiance towards the US and Israel. Millions of regime supporters turned out in Tehran and the holy cities of Qom and Mashhad, calling for revenge."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":410.05000000000007,"text":"In a sign of the regime’s belligerent mood, Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father, vowed on Saturday to avenge the “blood of all those martyred” in the conflict and Israel’s 12-day war against the republic last year."}],[{"start":424.25000000000006,"text":"“This vengeance is the will of our nation, and it will most certainly be carried out,” Mojtaba, who has not been seen since the war erupted in February, said in a written statement."}],[{"start":434.50000000000006,"text":"Vakil said that while Iran had not returned to full-scale war, the clashes risked spiralling out of control and pointed to a regime that was “less risk-averse”."}],[{"start":443.95000000000005,"text":"“It’s a new regime that’s fighting for survival. [Ali] Khamenei was fairly confident, had consolidated his power and was calibrated. These guys are untested,” Vakil said. “This is not the old Iran, this is the new Iran.”"}],[{"start":460.30000000000007,"text":"Cartography by Steven Bernard"}],[{"start":469.80000000000007,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1783905680_1884.mp3"}