{"text":[[{"start":7.84,"text":"The Bank of England does not need to raise interest rates because policy in the UK is tight enough to keep inflation in check, the OECD said on Wednesday, even as it warned of rising global price pressures from the energy crisis."}],[{"start":21.44,"text":"In its interim outlook, the Paris-based group said the BoE can afford to keep interest rates steady at 3.75 per cent until well into 2027 before cutting them by a quarter point in the third quarter of the year."}],[{"start":35.02,"text":"This contrasts with other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, which are expected to tighten policy further in the coming months."}],[{"start":45.64,"text":"Andrew Bailey, BoE governor, this month put households and businesses on notice that “policy may have to tighten”, with inflation forecast to head above 4 per cent next year. Markets are pricing in four quarter-point rate increases in the UK by the end of next year."}],[{"start":62.12,"text":"However, Stefano Scarpetta, OECD chief economist, said the UK was “starting from a different position” on monetary policy compared with other countries. Its key rate is high enough to restrict inflation that has undershot the OECD’s forecasts this year, he said."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":77.6,"text":"Official figures showed inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in August, well above the BoE’s 2 per cent target. In its outlook, the OECD trimmed its 2026 inflation forecast for the UK to 3.1 per cent, from 3.7 per cent in June."}],[{"start":93.36,"text":"UK price growth will decelerate further to 2.6 per cent in 2027, the OECD said. Assuming energy prices recede in 2027, this should reduce the risks of so-called second-round effects from energy costs into wages and corporate prices, enabling the BoE to trim interest rates."}],[{"start":112.2,"text":"If oil and gas prices remain unexpectedly high, the UK central bank will need to keep policy unchanged, Scarpetta said."}],[{"start":119.24,"text":"Chancellor John Healey is facing a tough Budget next month as high UK government borrowing costs threaten to slash the headroom against his key fiscal target."}],[{"start":128.6,"text":"Scarpetta said the government needed to keep spending under control, saying this was “important in terms of signalling” to bond markets."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":134.72,"text":"In a sign of the challenges facing the UK economy, a closely watched survey released on Wednesday showed that business activity fell more than forecast to a three-month low in September."}],[{"start":145.28,"text":"The S&P Global Flash UK PMI composite output index, a measure of activity in the private manufacturing and services sector, fell to 51.7 in September, down from 52.5 in August. A figure above 50 indicates an expansion in activity."}],[{"start":162.16,"text":"Businesses blamed high energy prices, elevated borrowing costs and policy uncertainty ahead of the Budget, the survey said."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":168.72,"text":"The UK economy will grow by 1.1 per cent this year, slightly faster than predicted in June but well below the 2.2 per cent pace forecast for the US, according to the OECD. The UK economy will expand by 1 per cent in 2027, it predicted."}],[{"start":184.96,"text":"With UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham considering further measures to alleviate upward pressures from energy prices on the cost of living, the OECD urged its member countries to ensure any such interventions are temporary and targeted at households most in need."}],[{"start":200.32,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1790163902_7850.mp3"}