{"text":[[{"start":9.85,"text":"Bond investors who suffered losses during the relentless sell-off of recent weeks will be closely watching market moves and economic data for anything that could spark a rebound."}],[{"start":19.9,"text":"They will be paying particularly close attention to the oil price, whose sharp rise this year has been a key driver of inflation fears, especially given that crude and US Treasuries are locked in their tightest relationship since the first Gulf war in 1990. "}],[{"start":36.2,"text":"Brent crude briefly dipped below the $100 mark on Friday after a G7 agreement to release crude and diesel reserves, although it later recovered to around $102."}],[{"start":46.85,"text":"European investors will also be hoping that there are no fresh political surprises to hit Eurozone government bonds next week, particularly given the market concerns swirling around France’s finances. The market recovered some ground on Friday after a rout on Thursday. "}],[{"start":62.75,"text":"“Our worry remains around deficits as we do not see any major economy taking steps to control deficits over the next 12 months,” said Jefferies’ Mohit Kumar. "}],[{"start":72.5,"text":"A boost could come from any weaker than expected US economic data. Numbers released on Friday showed the economy added fewer-than-expected 29,000 jobs in September. "}],[{"start":82.7,"text":"Treasuries initially gained, with the 10-year yield dropping as low as 5.16 per cent before climbing back to around 5.28 per cent. It had ended June at 4.42 per cent. Yields fall when prices rise. "}],[{"start":96.9,"text":"The weaker data is seen as giving the Federal Reserve less reason to vote for a second quarter-point interest rate rise at its October 28 meeting, with investors in futures markets currently pricing in just a 20 per cent chance of an increase. "}],[{"start":109.85000000000001,"text":"Good news on inflation before that meeting could help reduce the bets on rate rises that have stoked the global bond market sell-off, say analysts. Ian Smith"}],[{"start":120.05000000000001,"text":"Will this month’s University of Michigan survey trigger another market sell-off? "}],[{"start":125.35000000000001,"text":"A consumer sentiment report next week will be watched more closely than usual after September’s numbers sparked a significant sell-off in the US bond market. "}],[{"start":134.45000000000002,"text":"The University of Michigan on Friday will publish the preliminary results of its survey for October, which tracks how Americans feel about the economy, their own finances and the direction of inflation. "}],[{"start":146.65,"text":"While market reactions to the data are typically more muted than the response to new federal inflation or GDP numbers, the survey has become an increasingly important indicator of inflation fears since the Covid-19 pandemic. Expectations about inflation can push prices higher — business owners may raise prices in anticipation of inflationary pressures to come and consumers may adjust spending pre-emptively. "}],[{"start":173.05,"text":"The final reading of the September survey showed consumer sentiment had fallen to a four-month low, while inflation expectations rose to their highest since May. Treasury yields rose rapidly following the publication as traders priced in expectations of higher inflation and more interest rate increases. "}],[{"start":193.05,"text":"Analysts polled by Reuters expect a weaker sentiment reading this month than in September. "}],[{"start":198.35000000000002,"text":"Evidence of further inflation fears could spark another round of selling in the bond market, as could a strong reading on overall consumer sentiment. The resilience of the US economy this year – even as the war in Iran has raised prices across the world – has helped drive the sell-off, as traders ditch bonds for high-performing stocks. Kate Duguid"}],[{"start":219.3,"text":"How are higher mortgage rates affecting the UK property market?"}],[{"start":224.05,"text":"The Lloyds house price index for September will provide further evidence of the impact of higher mortgage rates on the UK property market."}],[{"start":232.25,"text":"Data from the lender Nationwide this week showed that house prices fell for four of the past five months, and the Lloyds index, published on Wednesday, is expected to confirm the weakness."}],[{"start":243.6,"text":"Mortgage rates have risen since the start of the conflict in the Middle East as higher energy costs push up inflation, prompting traders to sell bonds, which drives up yields, and to bet that the Bank of England will keep interest rates higher for longer. "}],[{"start":257.4,"text":"Financial markets are pricing in a roughly 90 per cent chance that the BoE will raise interest rates by a quarter point from 3.75 per cent at the next meeting in November."}],[{"start":268.79999999999995,"text":"The weakness in house prices has been particularly acute in London over the past year, extending a decade of underperformance relative to the rest of the country. In some of the central, more expensive parts of the capital, such as South Kensington, house prices are no higher than in 2013."}],[{"start":288.79999999999995,"text":"The monthly survey of agents by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors published on Thursday will provide further evidence on housing demand, sales and price expectations, as well as how the challenges of purchasing a property are having a knock-on effect on rental costs."}],[{"start":304.29999999999995,"text":"Conditions in the UK property market “will remain strained for a while”, said Sandra Horsfield, economist at Investec."}],[{"start":311.9,"text":"“But should energy prices decline steeply over the course of next year . . . policy rate expectations, swap rates and mortgage rates should all head lower again. In turn, this would allow the housing market to recover its footing again,” she added. Valentina Romei"}],[{"start":333.9,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1791127833_4243.mp3"}